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Diskussionspapiere 2033 / 2023
This study examines whether central banks can combat inflation that is caused by rising energy prices. By using a high-frequency event study and a Structural Vector Autoregression, we find evidence that the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) are capable of doing so by affecting domestic and global energy prices. This “energy-price channel” of monetary policy plays an important ...
2023| Gökhan Ider, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Frederik Kurcz, Ben Schumann
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Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 2 / 2023
Die vorliegende Studie analysiert Dimensionen und Determinanten von umfragebasierten Maßen zur Verankerung von Inflationserwartungen. Wir analysieren 82 Volkswirtschaften über einen Zeitraum von 1995 bis 2022 und zeigen, dass verschiedene Dimensionen der Inflationsverankerung grundsätzlich stark korreliert sind; die Standardabweichung der Inflationsvorhersagen zeigt jedoch zum Teil eine andere Dynamik. ...
2023| Joscha Beckmann, Robert L. Czudaj
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Diskussionspapiere 2057 / 2023
The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We investigate the dollar’s role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a Bayesian proxy structural vectorautoregressive model. We identify global risk shocks using high-frequency asset-price surprises around narratively selected events. Global risk shocks appreciate the dollar, induce tighter global ...
2023| Georgios Georgiadis, Gernot J. Müller, Ben Schumann
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Diskussionspapiere 2058 / 2023
We develop a two-country business-cycle model of the US and the rest of the world with dollar dominance in trade invoicing, in cross-border credit, and in safe assets. The interplay between these elements—dollar trinity—rationalizes salient features of the Global Financial Cycle in the data: When its tide subsides, the dollar appreciates, financial conditions tighten, the world business cycle slows ...
2023| Georgios Georgiadis, Gernot J. Müller, Ben Schumann
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DIW Weekly Report 29/30/31 / 2023
In the 24 years since its introduction, the euro has experienced a financial crisis, a government debt crisis, a global pandemic, and an energy crisis—and survived. Using a model focusing on households, this Weekly Report shows that the monetary union’s stability is rooted in the fact that the middle class neither gains nor loses significantly relative to an independent currency following business ...
2023| Christian Bayer, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Gernot Müller, Fabian Seyrich
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
Negative policy rates can convince markets that deposit rates will remain lower-for-longer, even when current deposit rates are constrained by zero. This is the signalling channel of negative interest rates. We analyse the optimality and effectiveness of negative rates in the context of this novel transmission channel. In a stylized model, we prove two necessary conditions for optimality: time-consistency ...
In:
Journal of Monetary Economics
138 (2023), S. 87-103
| Oliver de Groot, Alexander Haas
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Diskussionspapiere 2044 / 2023
How does a monetary union alter the impact of business cycle shocks at the household level? We develop a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model of two countries (HANK2) and show in closed form that a monetary union shifts the adjustment to a shock horizontally—across countries—within the brackets of the union-wide wealth distribution rather than vertically—that is, across the brackets of the union-wide ...
2023| Christian Bayer, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Gernot J. Müller, Fabian Seyrich
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
The European Central Bank (ECB) is currently facing major challenges. Fragmentation of government bond yields across Member States of the European Economic and Monetary Union, based on different economic and fiscal policies, hampers a uniform transmission of monetary policy. At the same time, climate-related financial risks need to be addressed. In recent years, the ECB is meeting these challenges ...
In:
The Economists' Voice
20 (2023), 1, S. 111-118
| Kerstin Bernoth, Sara Dietz
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
We develop a structural vector autoregressive framework that combines external instruments and heteroskedasticity for identification of monetary policy shocks. We show that exploiting both types of information sharpens structural inference, allows testing the relevance and exogeneity condition for instruments separately using likelihood ratio tests, and facilitates the economic interpretation of the ...
In:
Quantitative Economics
14 (2023), 1, S. 161-200
| Thore Schlaak, Malte Rieth, Maximilian Podstawski
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DIW Weekly Report 8 / 2023
Energy prices have risen sharply as a result of the coronavirus pandemic as well as the Russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022. The resulting consumer price inflation is forcing the European Central Bank (ECB) to act in accordance with its mandate. However, the ECB expresses doubts that it will be able to have an impact on the price increases. As this Weekly Report based on an analysis of structural ...
2023| Gökhan Ider, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Frederik Kurcz, Ben Schumann