Members of the Macroeconomics Department are part of the European Parliament's Monetary Policy Experts Panel. Under the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU), the ECB is accountable to the European Parliament. Quarterly meetings between the President of the ECB and the European Parliament's ECON Committee are known as the Monetary Dialogue. As part of this dialogue, we provide...
DIW president Marcel Fratzscher on the results of today's meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB:
This paper first shows that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the European Central Bank (ECB) can influence global energy prices. Second, through Lucas critique-robust counterfactual analysis, we uncover that the ECB’s ability to affect fast-moving energy prices plays an important role in the transmission of monetary policy. Third, we empirically document that, to optimally fulfill its primary mandate, ...
A central assumption for identifying structural shocks in vector autoregressive (VAR) models via heteroskedasticity is the time-invariance of the impact effects of the shocks. It is shown how that assumption can be tested when long-run restrictions are available for identifying structural shocks. The importance of performing such tests is illustrated by investigating the impact of fundamental shocks ...
We investigate the role of monetary policy in stock price misalignments and explore whether central banks can attenuate excessive mispricing as suggested by the proponents of a “leaning against the wind” monetary policy. Decomposing stock prices into expected excess dividends, an equity risk premium, and a mispricing component, we find that prices fall more strongly in response to an increase in the ...
We investigate the interplay of the monetary–fiscal policy mix during times of crisis by drawing insights from the Great Inflation of the 1960s and 1970s. We use a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to estimate a DSGE model with three distinct monetary/fiscal policy regimes. We show that, in such a model, SMC outperforms standard sampling algorithms because it is better suited to deal with multimodal ...
Following the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the European Central Bank (ECB) was confronted with an unprecedented increase in energy prices. This led to consumer price inflation in the euro area far beyond the ECB’s inflation target of two percent, at times up to 10 percent. At the same time, the euro area economy was threatened by a recession, which resulted in the ECB facing conflicting objectives ...
