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Seminar of the Macro Department
11.01.2022| Alexander Kriwoluzky
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Schumpeter BSE Macro Seminar
04.01.2022| Prof. Ryan Kim, Johns Hopkins University
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DIW Weekly Report 40 / 2022
Since the beginning of 2022, monetary policy in the euro area has been gradually normalizing. As a result, bond yields of highly indebted countries such as Italy and Greece are rising more sharply than those of countries with less debt, such as Germany, a development referred to as bond market fragmentation. To ensure the coherent effectiveness of monetary policy on economic developments and, ultimately, ...
2022| Kerstin Bernoth, Sara Dietz, Gökhan Ider, Rosa María Lastra
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Externe referierte Aufsätze
Spillovers from US monetary policy entail spillbacks to the domestic economy. Applying counterfactual analyses in a Bayesian proxy structural vector-autoregressive model we find that spillbacks account for a non-trivial share of the slowdown in domestic real activity following a contractionary US monetary policy shock. Spillbacks materialise as a monetary policy tightening depresses foreign sales and ...
In:
Journal of Monetary Economics
131 (2022), S. 45–60
| Max Breitenlechner, Georgios Georgiadis, Ben Schumann
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Diskussionspapiere 2012 / 2022
This paper studies the effects of harmonizing collateral policy in a monetary union. In 2007, the European Central Bank replaced national collateral lists with a single list specifying which assets euro area banks can pledge as collateral. Banks holding newly eligible assets experience a reduction in their cost of funding and increase loan supply compared to banks without such assets. The effect is ...
2022| Pia Hüttl, Matthias Kaldorf
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Diskussionspapiere 1990 / 2022
Negative interest rates remain a controversial policy for central banks. We study a novel signalling channel and ask under what conditions negative rates should exist in an optimal policymaker’s toolkit. We prove two necessary conditions for the optimality of negative rates: a time-consistent policy setting and a preference for policy smoothing. These conditions allow negative rates to signal policy ...
2022| Oliver de Groot, Alexander Haas
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Externe Monographien
Diese Arbeit umfasst drei Kapitel zur Debatte über makroökonomische Politik unter Unsicherheit und Ungleichheit. Das erste Kapitel zeigt auf, dass ein geringes Maß an Unsicherheit mit einer effektiveren Ausgabenpolitik einhergeht, und dass fiskalpolitische Ausgaben grundsätzlich ein wirksames Instrument zur Stabilisierung von Konjunkturzyklen sind. Das zweite Kapitel liefert Belege dafür, dass der ...
Berlin:
Humboldt-Universität Berlin,
2022,
XXII, 114 S.
| Jan Philipp Fritsche
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Diskussionspapiere 2004 / 2022
This paper revives the question of whether a temporary VAT change is an adequate instrument for crisis stabilization. In empirical assessments, we find that durable goods consumption fluctuates strongly over the business cycle and that VAT rate changes affect durable goods in particular. Therefore, we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that is capable of addressing this major ...
2022| Marius Clemens, Werner Röger
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Diskussionspapiere 1995 / 2022
We develop a New Keynesian model with household heterogeneity and bounded rationality in the form of cognitive discounting. The interaction of household heterogeneity and bounded rationality generates amplification of monetary and fiscal policy through indirect general equilibrium effects while simultaneously ruling out the forward guidance puzzle and remaining stable at the effective lower bound. ...
2022| Oliver Pfäuti, Fabian Seyrich
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Externe referierte Aufsätze
In proxy vector autoregressive models, the structural shocks of interest are identified by an instrument. Although heteroscedasticity is occasionally allowed for in inference, it is typically taken for granted that the impact effects of the structural shocks are time-invariant despite the change in their variances. We develop a test for this implicit assumption and present evidence that the assumption ...
In:
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
40 (2022), 3, S. 1268-1281
| Helmut Lütkepohl, Thore Schlaak