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DIW Weekly Report 10/11 / 2024
The German economy will likely contract in the first quarter of 2024 due to still heightened inflation and weak demand, which was already weighing on German economic output in 2023. Inflation, which is falling in both Germany and the euro area overall, is expected to return close to the European Central Bank's two-percent target, suggesting that a turnaround in interest rates can be expected in early ...
2024| Timm Bönke, Guido Baldi, Hella Engerer, Pia Hüttl, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Frederik Kurcz, Violetta Kuzmova-Anand, Theresa Neef, Laura Pagenhardt, Werner Roeger, Marie Rullière, Jan-Christopher Scherer, Teresa Schildmann, Ruben Staffa, Kristin Trautmann
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DIW Discussion Papers 2075 / 2024
Financial repression lowers the return on government debt and contributes, all else equal, towards its liquidation. However, its full effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio hinges on how repression impacts the economy at large because it alters investment and saving decisions. We develop and estimate a New Keynesian model with financial repression. Based on U.S. data for the period 1948–1974, we find, consistent ...
2024| Martin Kliem, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Gernot J. Müller, Alexander Scheer
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DIW Discussion Papers 2080 / 2024
Business cycle models often abstract from persistent household heterogeneity, despite its potentially significant implications for macroeconomic fluctuations and policy. We show empirically that the likelihood of being persistently financially constrained decreases with cognitive skills and increases with overconfidence thereon. Guided by this and other micro evidence, we add persistent heterogeneity ...
2024| Oliver Pfäuti, Fabian Seyrich, Jonathan Zinman
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We investigate how internal distribution motives can affect the implementation of an important macroeconomic policy: capital controls. To do this, we study one of history’s largest debt repatriations, which took place under strict capital controls in 1930s Germany, providing a wealth of quantitative and historical evidence. We show that the authorities kept private repatriations under strict control, ...
In:
Journal of Political Economy
132 (2024), 6, S. 1793-2178
| Andrea Papadia, Claudio A. Schioppa
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Refereed essays Web of Science
levelsof all goods in the US and Europe rose surprisingly quickly and persistently. TheFED began in March 2022 and the ECB in July 2022 with historically unique interestrate increases to combat the wage-price spiral that had not yet begun. In this article weshow that energy, commodities and food were the main drivers of inflation. For this reason,central banks’ goal of weakening demand for labor through ...
In:
Eurasian Economic Review
14 (2024), S. 235–254
| Dorothea Schäfer, Willi Semmler
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Refereed essays Web of Science
The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We investigate the dollar’s role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a Bayesian proxy structural vector autoregressive model. We identify global risk shocks using high-frequency asset-price surprises around narratively selected events. Global risk shocks appreciate the dollar, induce tighter global ...
In:
Journal of Monetary Economics
144 (2024), 103549, 12 S.
| Georgios Georgiadis, Gernot J. Müller, Ben Schumann
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We investigate the role of monetary policy in stock price misalignments and explore whether central banks can attenuate excessive mispricing as suggested by the proponents of a “leaning against the wind” monetary policy. Decomposing stock prices into expected excess dividends, an equity risk premium, and a mispricing component, we find that prices fall more strongly in response to an increase in the ...
In:
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
56 (2024), 7, S. 1887-1904
| Kerstin Bernoth, Benjamin Beckers
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Statement
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided today to keep the key interest rate constant. Here is a statement from Marcel Fratzscher, President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin):
14.12.2023| Marcel Fratzscher
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SOEP Brown Bag Seminar
Wealth transfer taxes are important instruments to counter increasing wealth inequality. Yet, inter-generational business transfers, whose distribution is particularly concentrated at the top, are inherently difficult to tax. This is due to preferential tax treatments in many countries and sophisticated tax avoidance strategies by business owners. We analyze how business transfers react to...
29.11.2023| Richard Winter, University of Mannheim
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Cluster-Seminar Öffentliche Finanzen und Lebenslagen
Stock market participation jumped upwards in Germany in the year 2020 by about 25%. A major cause for this was the enforced use of remote work. We show this by repeating a benchmark study with demanding data requests and adding remote work to the explanatory variables. Moreover, we implement an instrumental variables estimation based on commuting distance and work-from- home capacity. The...
19.07.2023| Lorenz Meister