Topic Monetary Policy

Fiscal Policy Rules for Stabilisation and Growth: A Simulation Analysis of Deficit and Expenditure Targets in a Monetary Union

We analyse the effectiveness of fiscal policy rules for business cycle stabilisation in a monetary union using a quarterly macro-econometric model of Germany. The simulations compare a deficit target and an expenditure target under a range of supply, demand and fiscal shocks. Their effects are evaluated by their impact on prices and output. The analysis demonstrates that in general the deficit target ...

Economic Forecasting and Monetary Policy

The DIW is the largest and oldest economics institute in Germany and conducts research in many fields of economic analysis. In this contribution to the conference celebrating the 80th birthday of this important institution I feel stimulated to address a few analytical issues, raising questions rather than providing answers, and without necessarily limiting the reasoning to predefined frameworks. The ...

Sticky Information Phillips Curves: European Evidence

We estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and the United Kingdom are updated about once a year, in Italy about once each six months.

Long-Run Money Demand in the New EU Member States with Exchange Rate Effects

Political Instability and the August 1998 Ruble Crisis

The main objective of this study is to highlight the importance of political instability, defined as frequent changes in and of government, in undermining the Russian exchange rate based stabilization program of the 1990s. The empirical evidence supports the significance of political instability along with economic fundamentals in determining Russian real effective exchange rate and exchange market ...

Modelling the Structural Break in Volatility

Recent studies suggest that US and other developed economies have become considerably stabilized in terms of volatility since the mid-1980s (Stock and Watson, 2002). This study models the structural break in volatility using a dynamic factor model with two state variables: one capturing cyclical fluctuations and another reflecting volatility decline. The new model confirms a one-time volatility reduction ...

Consumption and Disposable Income in the EU Countries: The Role of Wealth Effects

Informed Capital in a Hostile Environment: The Case of Relational Investors in Germany

Informed capital is a crucial ingredient to a well-functioning market for start-up finance, especially in times of difficult market conditions. For bank-based systems, the question regarding which investors actually supply informed capital has not yet been answered. To fill this gap, we conduct a survey among German suppliers of start-up finance. We find significant differences between the investors ...

The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations

We investigate the relevance of the Carroll's sticky information model of inflation expectations for four major European economies (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom). Using survey data on household and expert inflation expectations we argue that the model adequately captures the dynamics of household inflation expectations. We estimate two alternative parametrizations of the sticky information ...

The Argentinean Currency Crisis: A Markov-Switching Model Estimation

In 2002, the Argentinean currency board came to a sudden and dramatic end. Although the country had been suffering from weak economic fundamentals for years, the timing and severity of the currency crisis surprised most observers. The present study analyzes the role of fundamentals and self-fulfilling speculation in the Argentinean crisis. Arguing within a theoretical model of a fixed exchange rate ...