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Refereed essays Web of Science
We analyse the effectiveness of fiscal policy rules for business cycle stabilisation in a monetary union using a quarterly macro-econometric model of Germany. The simulations compare a deficit target and an expenditure target under a range of supply, demand and fiscal shocks. Their effects are evaluated by their impact on prices and output. The analysis demonstrates that in general the deficit target ...
In:
Journal of Policy Modeling
28 (2006), 4, S. 357-369
| Tilman Brück, Rudolf Zwiener
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Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 2 / 2006
The DIW is the largest and oldest economics institute in Germany and conducts research in many fields of economic analysis. In this contribution to the conference celebrating the 80th birthday of this important institution I feel stimulated to address a few analytical issues, raising questions rather than providing answers, and without necessarily limiting the reasoning to predefined frameworks. The ...
2006| Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
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Diskussionspapiere 615 / 2006
We estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and the United Kingdom are updated about once a year, in Italy about once each six months.
2006| Jörg Döpke, Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Jiri Slacalek
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Externe Monographien
Frankfurt am Main:
ECB,
2006,
31 S.
(Working Paper Series / European Central Bank ; 628)
| Christian Dreger, Hans-Eggert Reimers, Barbara Roffia
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Diskussionspapiere 626 / 2006
The main objective of this study is to highlight the importance of political instability, defined as frequent changes in and of government, in undermining the Russian exchange rate based stabilization program of the 1990s. The empirical evidence supports the significance of political instability along with economic fundamentals in determining Russian real effective exchange rate and exchange market ...
2006| Tatiana Fic, Omar F. Saqib
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Recent studies suggest that US and other developed economies have become considerably stabilized in terms of volatility since the mid-1980s (Stock and Watson, 2002). This study models the structural break in volatility using a dynamic factor model with two state variables: one capturing cyclical fluctuations and another reflecting volatility decline. The new model confirms a one-time volatility reduction ...
In:
Applied Economics Letters
13 (2006), 7, S. 417-422
| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Vincent Wenxiong Yao
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Other refereed essays
In:
Empirica
33 (2006), 4, S. 245-254
| Hans-Eggert Reimers, Christian Dreger
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Diskussionspapiere 549 / 2006
Informed capital is a crucial ingredient to a well-functioning market for start-up finance, especially in times of difficult market conditions. For bank-based systems, the question regarding which investors actually supply informed capital has not yet been answered. To fill this gap, we conduct a survey among German suppliers of start-up finance. We find significant differences between the investors ...
2006| Dorothea Schäfer, Dirk Schilder
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Diskussionspapiere 571 / 2006
We investigate the relevance of the Carroll's sticky information model of inflation expectations for four major European economies (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom). Using survey data on household and expert inflation expectations we argue that the model adequately captures the dynamics of household inflation expectations. We estimate two alternative parametrizations of the sticky information ...
2006| Jörg Döpke, Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Jiri Slacalek
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Refereed essays Web of Science
In 2002, the Argentinean currency board came to a sudden and dramatic end. Although the country had been suffering from weak economic fundamentals for years, the timing and severity of the currency crisis surprised most observers. The present study analyzes the role of fundamentals and self-fulfilling speculation in the Argentinean crisis. Arguing within a theoretical model of a fixed exchange rate ...
In:
The Developing Economies
44 (2006), 1, S. 79-91
| Patricia Alvarez-Plata, Mechthild Schrooten