This paper investigates the effect of economic integration on the ability of firms to maintain a collusive understanding about staying out of each other's markets. The paper distinguishes among different types of trade costs: ad valorem, unit, fixed. It is shown that for a sufficient reduction of ad valorem trade costs, a cartel supported by collusion on either quantities or prices will be weakened, ...
Despite the fact that Argentina has been suffering from recession for years, the timing and severity of the recent currency crisis surprised most observers. There is an extensive literature on early warning systems, which claim to be apt for a systematical prediction of currency crises. One of the most prominent "early warning system" approaches was first developed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart ...
Despite the fact that Argentina has been suffering from a recession for years, the timing and severity of the recent currency crisis surprised most observers. This paper analyzes the role of fundamentals and self-fulfilling speculation in the Argentinean crisis. Arguing within a theoretical model of a fixed exchange rate system that allows for multiple equilibria, we show that the crisis, while being ...
This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that monetary policy had on its development. Using the Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique is applied here for the first time using explicit exogenous variables. In particular real interest rates were found to explain a quarter of the increase in ...
Despite the fact that Argentina has been suffering from recession for years the timing and severity of the recent currency crisis has surprised most observers. This paper analyzes whether the "early warning" or "signals" approach of Kaminsky (1998), Kaminsky/Lizondo/Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky/Reinhart (1999) could have predicted the Argentinean currency crisis at an earlier point in time. Using a ...
The paper applies an equilibrium correction model to discuss impacts of monetary, labour and external factors on the German inflation. The approach presented is of eclectic character and allows for examination which variables representative for various inflation theories matter empirically when analysing inflation processes in Germany. The results obtained suggest that inflation in Germany is determined ...
