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Diskussionspapiere 2004 / 2022
This paper revives the question of whether a temporary VAT change is an adequate instrument for crisis stabilization. In empirical assessments, we find that durable goods consumption fluctuates strongly over the business cycle and that VAT rate changes affect durable goods in particular. Therefore, we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that is capable of addressing this major ...
2022| Marius Clemens, Werner Röger
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Diskussionspapiere 1995 / 2022
We develop a New Keynesian model with household heterogeneity and bounded rationality in the form of cognitive discounting. The interaction of household heterogeneity and bounded rationality generates amplification of monetary and fiscal policy through indirect general equilibrium effects while simultaneously ruling out the forward guidance puzzle and remaining stable at the effective lower bound. ...
2022| Oliver Pfäuti, Fabian Seyrich
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Diskussionspapiere 1993 / 2022
This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. It compiles a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. The main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ...
2022| Josefin Meyer, Carmen M. Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch
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Diskussionspapiere 1992 / 2022
We investigate how internal distribution motives can interfere with the economic objectives of capital controls. In order to do this, we provide a model showing that elite capture can affect optimal debt repatriations and the management of official reserves under capital controls. Relying on these theoretical insights and a wealth of quantitative and qualitative historical evidence, we study one of ...
2022| Andrea Papadia, Claudio A. Schioppa
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Spillovers from US monetary policy entail spillbacks to the domestic economy. Applying counterfactual analyses in a Bayesian proxy structural vector-autoregressive model we find that spillbacks account for a non-trivial share of the slowdown in domestic real activity following a contractionary US monetary policy shock. Spillbacks materialise as a monetary policy tightening depresses foreign sales and ...
In:
Journal of Monetary Economics
131 (2022), S. 45–60
| Max Breitenlechner, Georgios Georgiadis, Ben Schumann
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Externe Monographien
Diese Arbeit umfasst drei Kapitel zur Debatte über makroökonomische Politik unter Unsicherheit und Ungleichheit. Das erste Kapitel zeigt auf, dass ein geringes Maß an Unsicherheit mit einer effektiveren Ausgabenpolitik einhergeht, und dass fiskalpolitische Ausgaben grundsätzlich ein wirksames Instrument zur Stabilisierung von Konjunkturzyklen sind. Das zweite Kapitel liefert Belege dafür, dass der ...
Berlin:
Humboldt-Universität Berlin,
2022,
XXII, 114 S.
| Jan Philipp Fritsche
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Externe Monographien
Diese Dissertation besteht aus drei Aufsätzen, die die Rolle unterschiedlichester Arten von finanziellen Friktionen sowohl auf Firmenseite, als auch auf Bankenseite, für die Übertragung von finanziellen Schocks und Geldpolitik analysieren. Im ersten Aufsatz, "Firm Heterogeneity and the Capital Market", studiere ich welche Art von Finanzbeschränkungen der Firmen für die Übertragung von Kapitalmarktfinanzierungsschocks, ...
Berlin:
Humboldt-Universität Berlin,
2022,
XX, 188 S.
| Tobias König
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DIW Weekly Report 40 / 2022
Since the beginning of 2022, monetary policy in the euro area has been gradually normalizing. As a result, bond yields of highly indebted countries such as Italy and Greece are rising more sharply than those of countries with less debt, such as Germany, a development referred to as bond market fragmentation. To ensure the coherent effectiveness of monetary policy on economic developments and, ultimately, ...
2022| Kerstin Bernoth, Sara Dietz, Gökhan Ider, Rosa María Lastra
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Refereed essays Web of Science
In proxy vector autoregressive models, the structural shocks of interest are identified by an instrument. Although heteroscedasticity is occasionally allowed for in inference, it is typically taken for granted that the impact effects of the structural shocks are time-invariant despite the change in their variances. We develop a test for this implicit assumption and present evidence that the assumption ...
In:
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
40 (2022), 3, S. 1268-1281
| Helmut Lütkepohl, Thore Schlaak
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Diskussionspapiere 2012 / 2022
Does central bank collateral policy contribute to financial market integration? We address this question by exploiting that, in 2007, the European Central Bank replaced national collateral frameworks by a single list. Under the single list regime, euro area banks could pledge all euro area bank loans as collateral, not only domestic loans as before the framework change. Banks holding a large share ...
2022| Pia Hüttl, Matthias Kaldorf