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485 results, from 11
Schumpeter BSE Macro Seminar

Identifying Agglomeration Shadows: Long-run Evidence from Ancient Ports

25.01.2022| Richard Hornbeck, Chicago
Seminar of the Macro Department


11.01.2022| Alexander Kriwoluzky
Schumpeter BSE Macro Seminar

Spillovers and Redistribution through Intra-Firm Networks: The Product Replacement Channel (joint with Jay Hyun)

04.01.2022| Prof. Ryan Kim, Johns Hopkins University
Diskussionspapiere 2004 / 2022

Durable Consumption, Limited VAT Pass-Through and Stabilization Effects of Temporary VAT Changes

This paper revives the question of whether a temporary VAT change is an adequate instrument for crisis stabilization. In empirical assessments, we find that durable goods consumption fluctuates strongly over the business cycle and that VAT rate changes affect durable goods in particular. Therefore, we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that is capable of addressing this major ...

2022| Marius Clemens, Werner Röger
DIW Weekly Report 14/15/16 / 2022

ECB Can Lower Fuel and Heating Costs by Increasing Interest Rates but Would Risk Economic Recovery

Inflation has been growing considerably since the middle of 2021, with rising energy prices driving the increase in particular. Since the end of February 2022, the trend has also been exacerbated by the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. To keep prices stable, the European Central Bank must rein in its accommodative monetary policy. However, would doing so—by enacting an interest rate increase, for ...

2022| Gökhan Ider, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Frederik Kurcz
Diskussionspapiere 1995 / 2022

A Behavioral Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian Model

We propose a behavioral heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model in which monetary policy is amplified through indirect general equilibrium effects, fiscal multipliers can be larger than one and which delivers empirically-realistic intertemporal marginal propensities to consume. Simultaneously, the model resolves the forward guidance puzzle, remains stable at the effective lower bound and determinate ...

2022| Oliver Pfäuti, Fabian Seyrich
Diskussionspapiere 1990 / 2022

The Signalling Channel of Negative Interest Rates

Negative interest rates remain a controversial policy for central banks. We study a novel signalling channel and ask under what conditions negative rates should exist in an optimal policymaker’s toolkit. We prove two necessary conditions for the optimality of negative rates: a time-consistent policy setting and a preference for policy smoothing. These conditions allow negative rates to signal policy ...

2022| Oliver de Groot, Alexander Haas
Diskussionspapiere 1993 / 2022

Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo

This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. It compiles a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. The main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ...

2022| Josefin Meyer, Carmen M. Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Heteroscedastic Proxy Vector Autoregressions

In proxy vector autoregressive models, the structural shocks of interest are identified by an instrument. Although heteroscedasticity is occasionally allowed for in inference, it is typically taken for granted that the impact effects of the structural shocks are time-invariant despite the change in their variances. We develop a test for this implicit assumption and present evidence that the assumption ...

In: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (2022), im Ersch. [online first: 2021-06-01] | Helmut Lütkepohl, Thore Schlaak
Seminar of the Macro Department

Fiscal multipliers: do individuals make a difference?

14.12.2021| Stephanie Ettmeier
485 results, from 11