Topic Europe

The Macro-Economic Effects of a European Deposit (Re-)Insurance Scheme

Recent proposals for a European deposit insurance scheme (EDIS) favor a reinsurance framework. In this paper, we use a regime-switching open economy DSGE model with bank defaults to assess the relative efficiency of such a scheme. We find that reinsurance by EDIS is more effective in stabilizing real activity, credit, and welfare than a national fiscal backstop. We demonstrate that risk-weighted contributions ...

ECB Communication and Policy Responses: Being Effective in an Era of Disinflation and Economic Policy Uncertainty: In-Depth Analysis

This briefing report evaluates the ECB's monetary policy in a context of declining inflation and stagnant growth. Inflation risks have been averted and, after a period of relatively tight policy in 2024, benchmark comparisons indicate that the current interest rate is consistent with the ECB's mandate. The prevailing economic and inflation outlook supports further rate cuts. However, the high level ...

Declining Effective Tax Rates of Multinationals: The Hidden Role of Tax Base Reforms

This paper documents the rise of corporate tax-base narrowing measures in the EU using a novel dataset covering both tax rate and tax base reforms implemented between 2014 and 2022. Our findings indicate a shift away from the ’cut rate – broaden base’ approach, as governments increasingly align corporate taxation with industrial policy objectives. We show that EU tax competition exerts downward pressure ...

Analyzing ECB Communications Improves Forecasting of Interest Rate Decisions

For central banks, official communications serve as essential monetary policy instruments: In press releases, speeches, and interviews, central banks explain their decisions, manage expectations, and promote confidence in their strategy. This Weekly Report analyzes European Central Bank (ECB) communications from January 2019 to March 2025 using a specially trained artificial intelligence (AI) text ...

Euro Area Inflation Differentials: The Role of Fiscal Policies Revisited

Where Do They Care? The ECB in the Media and Inflation Expectations

This paper examines how news coverage of the European Central Bank (ECB) affects consumer inflation expectations in the four largest euro area countries. Utilizing a unique dataset of multilingual European news articles, we measure the impact of ECB-related inflation news on inflation expectations. Our results indicate that German and Italian consumers are more attentive to this news, whereas in Spain ...

Weather-Related Disasters and Inflation in the Euro Area

This article investigates the impact of weather-related disasters on inflation in the euro area over the period 1996–2021. Using a panel structural vector autoregression approach, we explore whether weather-related disasters have a significant and persistent effect on inflation, as well as the role that demand-side and supply-side channels play as drivers of inflation. We also analyse the heterogeneous ...

Monetary Policy during the Energy Price Crisis: ECB Could Have Contained Inflation Earlier

Following the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the European Central Bank (ECB) was confronted with an unprecedented increase in energy prices. This led to consumer price inflation in the euro area far beyond the ECB’s inflation target of two percent, at times up to 10 percent. At the same time, the euro area economy was threatened by a recession, which resulted in the ECB facing conflicting objectives ...

Friend, Not Foe - Energy Prices and European Monetary Policy

This paper first shows that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the European Central Bank (ECB) can influence global energy prices. Second, through Lucas critique-robust counterfactual analysis, we uncover that the ECB’s ability to affect fast-moving energy prices plays an important role in the transmission of monetary policy. Third, we empirically document that, to optimally fulfill its primary mandate, ...

Global Tax Evasion: How large is the problem and what to do about it?

Is global tax evasion falling or rising? Are new issues emerging, and if so, what are they? Have governments been effective in addressing tax evasion over the past 10 years? What has worked so far and what are some policies for the future? Gabriel Zucman, founding director of the EU Tax Observatory, and Sarah Godar will present key result from the inaugural Global Tax Evasion Report. The report...