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Open Heat BE

The heat supply in the city of Berlin will have to be substantially reformed to reach the goal of climate neutrality by 2045 while it has to cope with high gas prices today. In the research project Open Heat BE, two open numerical models are combined to analyse the short term and long term challenges of heat supply in Berlin. At TU Berlin, the energy system model GENeSYS-MOD is used at municipal...

Have the Effects of Shocks to Oil Price Expectations Changed? Evidence from Heteroskedastic Proxy Vector Autoregressions

Studies of the crude oil market based on structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models typically assume a time-invariant model and transmission of shocks or they consider a time-varying model and shock transmission. We assume a heteroskedastic reduced-form VAR model with time-invariant slope coefficients and test for time-varying impulse responses in a model for the global crude oil market that includes ...

The Energy-Price Channel of (European) Monetary Policy

This study examines whether central banks can combat inflation that is caused by rising energy prices. By using a high-frequency event study and a Structural Vector Autoregression, we find evidence that the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) are capable of doing so by affecting domestic and global energy prices. This “energy-price channel” of monetary policy plays an important ...

How Communication Makes the Difference between a Cartel and Tacit Collusion: A Machine Learning Approach

This paper sheds new light on the role of communication for cartel formation. Using machine learning to evaluate free-form chat communication among firms in a laboratory experiment, we identify typical communication patterns for both explicit cartel formation and indirect attempts to collude tacitly. We document that firms are less likely to communicate explicitly about price fixing and more likely ...

Reducing Energy System Model Distortions from Unintended Storage Cycling through Variable Costs

Energy system models are used for policy decisions and technology designs. If not carefully used, models give implausible outputs and mislead decision-making. One implausible effect is “unintended storage cycling”, which is observable as simultaneous storage charging and discharging. Methods to remove such misleading effects exist, but are computationally inefficient and sometimes ineffective. Through ...

Substituting Clean for Dirty Energy: A Bottom-Up Analysis

We fit CES and VES production functions to data from a numerical bottom-up optimization model of electricity supply with clean and dirty inputs. This approach allows for studying high shares of clean energy not observable today and for isolating mechanisms that impact the elasticity of substitution between clean and dirty energy. Central results show that (i) dirty inputs are not essential for production. ...

A Collective Blueprint, Not a Crystal Ball: How Expectations and Participation Shape Long-Term Energy Scenarios

The development of energy systems is not a technocratic process but equally shaped by societal and cultural forces. Key instruments in this process are model-based scenarios describing a future energy system. Applying the concept of fictional expectations from social economics, we show how energy scenarios are tools to channel political, economic, and academic efforts into a common direction. To impact ...

Replacing Gas Boilers with Heat Pumps Is the Fastest Way to Cut German Gas Consumption

The supply security of fossil gas has been disrupted by the Russo-Ukrainian War. Decisions to relocate the production and transport of gas have become so urgent that new long-term contracts are imminent that undermine the Paris Climate Agreement. Here, we simulate how quickly the addition of renewable electricity and the installation of heat pumps can substitute enough gas to reduce supply risk, while ...

Stranded Nations? Transition Risks and Opportunities towards a Clean Economy

The transition away from a fossil-fuel powered economy towards a cleaner production system will create winners and losers in the global trade system. We compile a list of 'brown' traded products whose use is highly likely to decline if the world is to mitigate climate change, and explore which countries are most at risk of seeing their productive capabilities 'stranded'. Using methods from economic ...