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Open Heat BE

The heat supply in the city of Berlin will have to be substantially reformed to reach the goal of climate neutrality by 2045 while it has to cope with high gas prices today. In the research project Open Heat BE, two open numerical models are combined to analyse the short term and long term challenges of heat supply in Berlin. At TU Berlin, the energy system model GENeSYS-MOD is used at municipal...

A Collective Blueprint, Not a Crystal Ball: How Expectations and Participation Shape Long-Term Energy Scenarios

The development of energy systems is not a technocratic process but equally shaped by societal and cultural forces. Key instruments in this process are model-based scenarios describing a future energy system. Applying the concept of fictional expectations from social economics, we show how energy scenarios are tools to channel political, economic, and academic efforts into a common direction. To impact ...

Have the Effects of Shocks to Oil Price Expectations Changed? Evidence from Heteroskedastic Proxy Vector Autoregressions

Studies of the crude oil market based on structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models typically assume a time-invariant model and transmission of shocks or they consider a time-varying model and shock transmission. We assume a heteroskedastic reduced-form VAR model with time-invariant slope coefficients and test for time-varying impulse responses in a model for the global crude oil market that includes ...

Stranded Nations? Transition Risks and Opportunities towards a Clean Economy

The transition away from a fossil-fuel powered economy towards a cleaner production system will create winners and losers in the global trade system. We compile a list of 'brown' traded products whose use is highly likely to decline if the world is to mitigate climate change, and explore which countries are most at risk of seeing their productive capabilities 'stranded'. Using methods from economic ...

Replacing Gas Boilers with Heat Pumps Is the Fastest Way to Cut German Gas Consumption

The supply security of fossil gas has been disrupted by the Russo-Ukrainian War. Decisions to relocate the production and transport of gas have become so urgent that new long-term contracts are imminent that undermine the Paris Climate Agreement. Here, we simulate how quickly the addition of renewable electricity and the installation of heat pumps can substitute enough gas to reduce supply risk, while ...

The Price of Natural Gas Dependency: Price Shocks, Inequality, and Public Policy

The 2022 natural gas price spikes across Europe raised concerns regarding their distributional consequences. This paper investigates the distributional effect of price increases between and, in particular, within different income groups in Germany, accounting for different determinants of gas expenditures. The study finds that low-income households are affected the most by the gas price increase. Low-income ...

De-Fueling Externalities: How Tax Salience and Fuel Substitution Mediate Climate and Health Benefits

This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the world’s largest environmental tax reform. We compare carbon and air pollutant emissions of the German transport sector and synthetic counterfactuals following the 1999 eco-tax reform, and find average re- ductions in external damages of around 80 billion Euros. We further show that the eco-tax induced low-carbon innovation and document much stronger ...

Geographical Balancing of Wind Power Decreases Storage Needs in a 100% Renewable European Power Sector

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, many countries plan to massively expand wind power and solar photovoltaic capacities. These variable renewable energy sources require additional flexibility in the power sector. Both geographical balancing enabled by interconnection and electricity storage can provide such flexibility. In a 100% renewable energy scenario of twelve central European countries, we investigate ...

Not Only a Mild Winter: German Consumers Change Their Behavior to Save Natural Gas: Commentary