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  • DIW Weekly Report 1/2 / 2024

    Decline in Nominal Construction Volume Expected for the First Time since the Financial Crisis; Residential Construction Situation Worsening

    High construction prices and worsened financing conditions are weighing on the construction industry, especially build-ing construction. Despite a nominal increase of six percent in construction expenses in 2023, it decreased by just over one percent in inflation-adjusted terms. In 2024, the nominal construction volume is likely to contract by around 3.5 percent, declining for the first time since ...

    2024| Martin Gornig, Laura Pagenhardt
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Forward to the Past: Short-Term Effects of the Rent Freeze in Berlin

    In 2020, Berlin introduced a rigorous rent-control policy responding to soaring prices by capping rents: the Mietendeckel (rent freeze). The German Constitutional Court revoked the policy only one year later. Although successful in lowering rents during its duration, the consequences for Berlin’s rental market and close-by markets are per se not clear. This article evaluates the short-term causal supply-side ...

    In: Management Science 2024, im Ersch. [online first: 2023-05-22] | Anja M. Hahn, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Sofie R. Waltl, Marco Fongoni
  • DIW Weekly Report 1/2 / 2023

    Construction Boom Coming to an End; Change in Policy Strategy Needed

    Following the construction boom of recent years in Germany, inflation and supply bottlenecks hit the industry hard in 2022. While nominal construction volume increased by nearly 14 percent, it decreased by two percent when adjusted for inflation. Residential construction, which is urgently needed, was particularly affected. In 2023 and 2024, it is expected that investors will show restraint and that ...

    2023| Martin Gornig, Laura Pagenhardt
  • Weekly Report

    Construction industry momentum continues – state stimulus impacts prices

    By Martin Gornig, Claus Michelsen, and Martin Bruns According to the German Institute for Economic Research construction volume forecast, the country’s construction industry will continue to flourish in the coming years. Companies can count on a rise in the nominal construction volume of around 7.5 percent in 2019 and 6.5 percent next year. The industry’s business cycle continues ...

    14.01.2019| Martin Johannes Bruns, Martin Gornig, Claus Michelsen
  • Weekly Report

    Signs of New Housing Bubble in Many OECD Countries – Lower Risk in Germany

    Ten years after the worldwide financial and economic crisis was triggered by the American real estate market, real estate prices are rising around the globe. Concerns about a new housing bubble are growing. The present report based on OECD data for 20 countries demonstrates that this concern is not unwarranted. In eight countries, including the United Kingdom and the USA, the evolution of real estate ...

    26.07.2018| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Claus Michelsen
  • Press Release

    Construction volume forecast: End of the new housing sector boom

    Construction industry continues very positive development – more room for modernization and renovation of existing buildings – construction prices rise sharply The construction sector cycle will continue its upward course in the next two years according to the forecast of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), which makes its annual prognosis of construction volume on ...

    12.01.2018
  • Research Project

    Evaluation of the effectiveness of the rent control introduced in 2015 to dampen rent increases in tight housing markets (Mietpreisbremse)

    The project investigates the effectiveness of the rent control for new rental contracts introduced in 2015. The effects of regulation on price formation in the regulated and unregulated housing market will be analyzed. In addition, the effects of the rent control on supply will be examined and the extent to which the law may have prevented investment will be studied.

    Completed Project| Forecasting and Economic Policy
  • Economic Bulletin

    2016 Heat Monitor: "Second rent" lower despite higher heating energy consumption

    Residential heating is responsible for one-fifth of Germany’s energy consumption. Heating costs were around 562 euros per year for an average apartment in 2016, which is more than a 13th month’s rent minus heating costs (Kaltmiete). These are the findings of the 2016 Heat Monitor, published by the German Institute for Economic Research and ista Deutschland GmbH. The report presents evaluations ...

    20.09.2017| Claus Michelsen
  • Economic Bulletin

    No Germany-wide housing bubble but overvaluation in regional markets and segments

    Although the housing prices in the 127 largest German cities have surged strongly in recent years, there is still no sign of a Germanywide housing bubble. In comparison with 2009, the price of condominiums has risen by around 55 percent. Single-family houses cost between 38 and 45 percent more in 2016 than seven years prior, and building lot prices have risen by around 63 percent. The study at hand ...

    26.06.2017| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Claus Michelsen
  • Economic Bulletin

    Construction sector: full order books, good growth prospects

    A significant rise in Germany’s construction volume is expected for this year and the next, even if the growth is not as pronounced as it was in 2016. According to DIW Berlin’s latest construction volume calculations, the sum of all new construction and building refurbishments will increase in real terms by 1.6 and 2.4 percent in 2017 and 2018, respectively, from a rate of 2.5 percent in ...

    13.02.2017| Claus Michelsen
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