Topic Markets

German Cities to See Further Rises in Housing Prices and Rents in 2013

Over the past few years, prices and rents for flats went up in most German cities. This trend is expected to continue in 2013. Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, and Frankfurt am Main will still see the highest increases in property prices and rents. In these cities, housing prices are rising much faster than rents. By contrast, stagnating or even falling prices are forecast for the cities in the Ruhr area. ...

An Early Warning System to Predict the Speculative House Price Bubbles

In this paper, the authors construct country-specific chronologies of house price bubbles for 12 OECD countries over the period 1969:Q12009:Q4. These chronologies are obtained using a combination of fundamental and filter approaches. The resulting speculative bubble chronology is the one providing the highest concordance between these two techniques. In addition, the authors suggest an early warning ...

Noise Expectation and House Prices

In this paper, we examine the effects of an airport expansion on the prices of houses and flats located under the planned flight corridors. We focus on the role of expectations about the exposure to noise and find that proximity to the planned corridors significantly reduces real estate prices in the affected areas, by around 41% to 60%, depending on the sample. Hereby, the various plans of expanding ...

Endogenous Investment Decisions in Natural Gas Equilibrium Models with Logarithmic Cost Functions

The liberalisation of the natural gas markets and the importance of natural gas as a transition fuel to a low-carbon economy have led to the development of several large-scale equilibrium models in the last decade. These models combine long-term market equilibria and investments in infrastructure while accounting for market power by certain suppliers. They are widely used to simulate market outcomes ...

Mexico

Market Access and Child Labour: Survey Evidence from Rural Uganda

The study analyses the relationship between access to rural product markets and the extent and nature of child labour. It is built on the view that if physical markets can shape rural development through, for instance, influencing prices, household production decisions and employment, the associated activity growth could increase child labour. Using household survey data from Uganda, I find that children ...

Targeted Pricing and Consumer Data Sharing among Rivals

Trade and the Environment: The Role of Firm Heterogeneity

This paper derives a new effect of trade liberalisation on the quality of the environment. We show that in the presence of heterogeneous firms the aggregate volume of emissions is influenced not only by the long-established scale effect, but also by a reallocation effect resulting from an increase in the relative size of more productive firms. We show how the relative importance of these effects, and ...

Location, Location, Location: Extracting Location Value from House Prices

The price for a single-family house depends both on the characteristics of the building and on its location. We propose a novel semiparametric method to extract location values from house prices. After splitting house prices into building and land components, location values are estimated with adaptive weight smoothing. The adaptive estimator requires neither strong smoothness assumptions nor local ...

Forecasting the Prices and Rents for Flats in Large German Cities

In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the monthly growth rates of the prices and rents for flats in 26 largest German cities. Given the small time dimension, the forecasts are done in a panel-data format. In addition, we use panel models that account for spatial dependence between the growth rates of housing prices and rents. Using a quasi out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that both ...