Publications of the Project: Fossil Resource markets and climate policy: Stranded assets, Expectations and the political Economy of climate change (FoReSee)
Coal consumption and production have sharply declined in recent years in the U.S., despite political support. Reasons are mostly unfavorable economic conditions for coal, including competition from natural gas and renewables in the power sector, as well as an aging coal-fired power plant fleet. Nevertheless, coal remains a major energy source in the North American energy markets. Supplementing EMF34 ...
In:
Energy Policy
149 (2021), 112097, 13 S.
| Christian Hauenstein, Franziska Holz
We compare prominent global energy scenarios of organizations and companies. We supplement the analysis with four own scenarios, which were derived from structured analytic techniques in combination with a numerical global energy and resource market model (Multimod). Our paper provides three central contributions: (i) a compact survey of selected outlooks with meta characteristics (conceptual nature, ...
In:
Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy
9 (2020), 1, S. 21-42
| Dawud Ansari, Franziska Holz, Hashem al-Kuhlani
Climate-related asset stranding refers to the depreciation of assets – such as resource reserves, infrastructure, or industries – resulting from the unanticipated changes, such as the tightening of climate policies. Although developing countries – especially fossil-fuel exporters – may be most concerned by this issue, its analysis in development (economics) has so far been limited.We aim at enhancing ...
In:
World Development
130 (2020), 104947, 17 S.
| Dawud Ansari, Franziska Holz
The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to stop the ongoing spiralling down of the U.S. coal industry. We discuss the origins of the decline and assess the effects of policy interventions by the Trump administration. We find that, with fierce competition from natural gas and renewables, a further decrease of coal consumption must be expected by the old and inefficient U.S. coal-fired ...
In:
Climate Policy
19 (2019), 10, S. 1310-1324
| Roman Mendelevitch, Christian Hauenstein, Franziska Holz
This study presents a set of novel and multidisciplinary scenarios (‘narratives’) that provide insight into four distinct and diverging yet plausible worlds. They combine qualitative and quantitative elements in order to reflect the interlinked and complex nature of energy and climate. We use the STEMPLE+ framework to include social, technological, economic, military (security), political, environmental, ...
In:
Energy Research & Social Science
58 (2019), 101250, 23 S.
| Dawud Ansari, Franziska Holz