SOEP Brown Bag Seminar

This paper examines the long-term impact of childhood exposure to aggregate shocks on intertemporal decision-making. Drawing on survey data from 80,000 individuals in 76 countries and exploiting within-country, cross-cohort variation in exposure to natural and man-made disasters, I show that such shocks during childhood significantly reduce patience in adulthood. The effects are concentrated during adolescence, highlighting the importance of this developmental stage in the formation of time preferences. Evidence from migrant subsamples helps isolate psychological mechanisms from material hardship, pointing to heightened perceived future uncertainty as the primary channel. Overall, these findings demonstrate that childhood exposure to instability has lasting effects on adult time preferences.