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990 results, from 781
  • Externe Monographien

    EUROFRAME Forecast EU and Euro Area Economies: November 2003

    Brussels [u.a.]: EUROFRAME, 2003, 13 S.
  • Externe Monographien

    The EUROFRAME Outlook for the Euro Area: November 2004

    Brussels [u.a.]: EUROFRAME, 2004, 15 S.
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    When Do Forecasters Disagree? An Assessment of German Growth and Inflation Forecast Dispersion

    Based on a panel of German professional forecasts for 1970-2004 we analyse the dispersion of growth and inflation forecasts. Forecast dispersion varies over time and is particularly high before and during recessions. There is no clear link between forecast dispersion and the subsequent forecast error. Forecast dispersion is positively correlated with the volatility of macroeconomic variables, but not ...

    In: International Journal of Forecasting 22 (2006), 1, S. 125-135 | Jörg Döpke, Ulrich Fritsche
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Growth and Inflation Forecasts for Germany: A Panel-Based Assessment of Accuracy and Efficiency

    We analyse forecasts of professional forecasters for Germany regarding the time span from 1970 to 2004. This novel panel data set renders it possible to assess the accuracy and efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts more efficiently than in previous studies. We argue that the forecasts are, on average, unbiased and weakly - but not strongly - efficient. Using model confidence sets suggested by ...

    In: Empirical Economics 31 (2006), 3, S. 777-798 | Jörg Döpke, Ulrich Fritsche
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Measuring and Predicting Turning Points Using a Dynamic Bi-Factor Model

    In this paper a dynamic bi-factor model with Markov-switching is developed to measure and predict turning points. Both common factors, namely composite leading index (CLI) and composite coincident index (CCI) respectively, have their own cyclical dynamics, and their lead-lag relationships are reflected in the transition probabilities matrix. The model is applied to four coincident and four selected ...

    In: International Journal of Forecasting 21 (2005), 3, S. 525-537 | Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Vincent W. Yao
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence

    In this paper we perform a comparative study of the forecasting properties of the about 30 alternative leading indicators for Germany using the growth rates of German real GDP. In addition to them, we have constructed a diffusion index based on the principal component analysis and including 145 component series that reflect all the facets of German economy. We use the post-unification data which cover ...

    In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 226 (2006), 3, S. 234-259 | Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Boriss Silverstovs
  • Externe Monographien

    Labour Market Reforms and Economic Growth in Ukraine: Linkages and Policies

    Aachen: Shaker Verl., 2006, 298 S.
    (Berichte aus der Volkswirtschaft)
    | Lars Handrich, Ihor Burakovsky, Oleksandra Betliy (Eds.)
  • Economic Bulletin 11 / 2002

    The Asia Crisis - Five Years On

    2002| Mechthild Schrooten
  • Economic Bulletin 7 / 2002

    Progress Report on the Economic Situation in Eastern Germany

    2002
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Efficient Infrastructure Supply for Economic Development in Transition Countries: The Case of Ukraine

    Infrastructure restructuring is one of the major elements of structural reforms in transition economies because of its expected large economic and social impact. This article aims to assess the role of infrastructure policy in economic development in transition countries in general and Ukraine in particular. We test the relationship between infrastructure policy and economic growth, though this test ...

    In: Post-Communist Economies 14 (2002), 2, S. 149-167 | Boris Dodonov, Christian von Hirschhausen, Petra Opitz & Pavlo Sugolov
990 results, from 781
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