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373 results, from 21
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Exit Expectations and Debt Crises in Currency Unions

We study a sovereign debt crisis in a small member state of a currency union. If the country exits the currency union, it may redenominate its liabilities and reduce the real value of debt through depreciation and inflation. We analyze formally how the anticipation of this possibility, “exit expectations”, impact the dynamics of the sovereign debt crisis. First, we show that public debt

In: Journal of International Economics 121 (2019), 103253, 13 S. | Alexander Kriwoluzky, Gernot J. Müller, Martin Wolf
Research Project

The effect of the low interest environment on household investment behavior

The objective of the project is to analyze the effects of long enduring low interest rates on household investment behavior, setting a special focus on the stock market participation of German and US households. In particular, we address four questions within the project. Did the low interest rate environment induced more households to enter the stock market? How do low interest rates affect the

Current Project| Macroeconomics
Externe referierte Aufsätze

US Monetary Policy and the Euro Area

This study documents empirically that contractionary US monetary policy may generate short-term expansionary spillover effects. In individual Euro Area (EA) member countries, economic activity increases, mainly via the trade channel. Also, domestic credit and stock markets expand, highlighting the importance of the financial channel. However, the international repercussions are transitory and

In: Journal of Banking & Finance 100 (2019), S. 77-96 | Max Hanisch
Monographien

Inflation Expectations and the Recovery from the Great Depression in Germany

A regime shift towards increased in inflation expectations is credited with jumpstarting the recovery from the Great Depression in the United States. Germany experienced a recovery as fast and strong in the 1930s. What role did inflation expectations play at the start of this remarkable economic upturn? To answer this question, we study inflation expectations in Germany across two different

Berlin: HU Berlin, 2018, 45 S.
(Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation: Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour" ; 6)
| Volker Daniel, Lucas ter Steege
Diskussionspapiere 1781 / 2019

The Short-Run Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks on Credit Risk: An Analysis of the Euro Area

We examine the credit channel of monetary policy from 2000 to 2015 in the Euro Area using daily monetary policy shock and credit risk measures in an autoregressive distributed lag model. We find that an expansionary monetary policy shock leads to a short-run increase in the credit risk of non-financial corporations. This dysfunctionality of the credit channel is driven by the crisis-dominated post

2019| Chi Hyun Kim, Lars Other
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Understanding the Great Recession

We argue that the vast bulk of movements in aggregate real economic activity during the Great Recession were due to financial frictions. We reach this conclusion by looking through the lens of an estimated New Keynesian model in which firms face moderate degrees of price rigidities, no nominal rigidities in wages, and a binding zero lower bound constraint on the nominal interest rate. Our model

In: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 7 (2015), 1, S. 110-167 | Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin S. Eichenbaum, Mathias Trabandt
Diskussionspapiere 1814 / 2019

Macroprudential Regulation and Leakage to the Shadow Banking Sector

Macroprudential policies for financial institutions have received increasing prominence since the global financial crisis. These policies are often aimed at the commercial banking sector, while a host of other non-bank financial institutions, or shadow banks, may not fall under their jurisdiction. We study the effects of tightening commercial bank regulation on the shadow banking sector. For this

2019| Stefan Gebauer, Falk Mazelis
Monographien

Happy Birthday? The Euro at 20: Monetary Dialogue January 2019

We analyse the first twenty years of the euro both from an economic and an institutional perspective. We find that in particular during the period since the financial crisis, convergence as measured by a variety of indicators has not improved. Design flaws in the Eurozone institutional architecture have contributed importantly to this lack of convergence. This is why further reforms are urgently

Bruxelles: European Parliament, 2019, 30 S.
(In-depth Analysis)
| Kerstin Bernoth, Franziska Bremus, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Henrik Enderlein, Marcel Fratzscher, Lukas Guttenberg, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Rosa Lastra
Research Project

Macroeconomic fundamentals and asset prices – state dependence and implications for the conduct of monetary policy

Noticing the adoption of unconventional measures of monetary policy in major currency areas on the one hand and continuing globalisation and integration of international financial markets on the other hand, we analyse the linkages between monetary policy and asset prices. Apart from excess asset valuation, we consider second order dynamics (uncertainties, tail risks) as specific threats to

Current Project| Macroeconomics
373 results, from 21