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476 results, from 41
Diskussionspapiere 1966 / 2021

Sovereign Default Risk, Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Monetary-Fiscal Stabilization

This paper examines the role of sovereign default beliefs for macroeconomic fluctuations and stabilization policy in a small open economy where fiscal solvency is a critical problem. We set up and estimate a DSGE model on Turkish data and show that accounting for sovereign risk significantly improves the fit of the model through an endogenous amplification between default beliefs, exchange rate and ...

2021| Markus Kirchner, Malte Rieth
DIW Weekly Report 31 / 2021

Restrictive US Trade Policy Has a Significantly Negative Effect on Financial Markets

With its America First strategy, the former US administration turned away from an internationally oriented trade policy. It attempted to assert its interests, especially vis-à-vis China, with bilateral and mostly restrictive measures such as import tariffs. This Weekly Report shows that the costs of such a strategy are immense, at least in the medium-term analysis conducted: Almost all US industries ...

2021| Lukas Boer, Lukas Menkhoff, Malte Rieth
Monographien

Essays on International Macroeconomics

Der Beginn der globalen Finanzkrise und die Implementierung einer außerordentlich expansiven Geldpolitik in vielen Volkswirtschaften lösten ein erneutes Interesse an den Auswirkungen globaler und ausländischer Schocks in einzelnen Ländern aus. Zugleich hat die länderübergreifende Heterogenität der makroökonomischen und finanziellen Auswirkungen von Schocks die Notwendigkeit unterstrichen, jene Faktoren, ...

Berlin: Freie Univ. Berlin, FB Wirtschaftswiss., 2020, 197, LV S. | Pablo Andrés Anaya Longaric
Monographien

Government Spending Multipliers in (Un)certain Times

We estimate the dynamic effects of government spending shocks, using time-varying volatility in US data modeled through a Markov switching process. We find that the average government spending multiplier is significantly and persistently above one, driven by a crowding-in of private consumption and non-residential investment. We rationalize the results empirically through a contemporaneously countercyclical ...

Berlin: DIW Berlin, 2019, 27 S. | Jan Philipp Fritsche, Mathias Klein, Malte Rieth
Diskussionspapiere 1990 / 2022

The Signalling Channel of Negative Interest Rates

Negative interest rates remain a controversial policy for central banks. We study a novel signalling channel and ask under what conditions negative rates should exist in an optimal policymaker’s toolkit. We prove two necessary conditions for the optimality of negative rates: a time-consistent policy setting and a preference for policy smoothing. These conditions allow negative rates to signal policy ...

2022| Oliver de Groot, Alexander Haas
Seminar of the Macro Department

A 200-hundered Year EMBI

05.04.2022| Josefin Meyer
Seminar of the Macro Department

tba

11.01.2022| Alexander Kriwoluzky
Seminar of the Macro Department

tba

22.02.2022| Hannah Magdalena Seidl
Seminar of the Macro Department

Wealth inequality cycles

25.01.2022| Sören Gaum
DIW Weekly Report 41/42 / 2021

Inflation in the Euro Area: Factors Mostly Have Only a Temporary Effect, but Risk of Prolonged Elevated Inflation Remains

Headline inflation in the euro area jumped to more than three percent in the summer after years of relatively low inflation rates well below the target of close to but below two percent set by the ECB until July 2021. One of the main reasons for the rise in inflation is the increase in energy prices since the beginning of 2021. However, there are further indications that inflation in the euro area ...

2021| Kerstin Bernoth, Gökhan Ider
476 results, from 41
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