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534 results, from 451
  • Diskussionspapiere 1496 / 2015

    The Real-Time Predictive Content of Asset Price Bubbles for Macro Forecasts

    This paper contributes to the debate of whether central banks can "lean against the wind" of emerging stock or house price bubbles. Against this background, the paper evaluates if new advances in real-time bubble detection, as brought forward by Phillips et al. (2011), can timely detect bubble emergences and collapses. Building on simulations, the paper shows that the detection capabilities of all ...

    2015| Benjamin Beckers
  • Diskussionspapiere 1479 / 2015

    Euro Area Government Bonds: Integration and Fragmentation during the Sovereign Debt Crisis

    The paper analyzes the integration of euro area sovereign bond markets during the European sovereign debt crisis. It tests for contagion (i.e., an intensification in the transmission of shocks across countries), fragmentation (a reduction in spillovers) and flight-to-quality patterns, exploiting the heteroskedasticity of intraday changes in bond yields for identification. The paper finds that euro ...

    2015| Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher
  • DIW Economic Bulletin 13 / 2015

    Unchartered Territory: Large-Scale Asset Purchases by the European Central Bank

    The European Central Bank (ECB) decided at its Council meeting in January to implement a comprehensive program to purchase bonds, including euro area government bonds. The purchases are intended to anchor the rate of inflation and inflation expectations at below but close to two percent again. Given the lack of experience with this unconventional monetary policy instrument, the ECB is venturing into ...

    2015| Kerstin Bernoth, Philipp König, Carolin Raab, Marcel Fratzscher
  • DIW Economic Bulletin 13 / 2015

    ECB Bond Purchases: No Panacea for Deflation: Seven Questions to Kerstin Bernoth and Philipp König

    2015
  • Other refereed essays

    The Transmission of Oil and Food Prices to Consumer Prices: Evidence for the MENA Countries

    This paper investigates the effects of global oil and food price shocks to consumer prices in Middle East-North African (MENA) countries using threshold cointegration methods. Oil and food price shocks increase domestic prices in the long run, whereby the impact of food prices dominates. While global prices are weakly exogenous, consumer prices respond to deviations from the equilibrium relationship. ...

    In: International Economics and Economic Policy 12 (2015), 1, S. 143-161 | Ansgar Belke, Christian Dreger
  • Diskussionspapiere 1304 / 2013

    On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing

    The paper analyses the global spillovers of the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policy measures. First, we find that Fed measures in the early phase of the crisis (QE1), but not since 2010 (QE2), were highly effective in lowering sovereign yields and raising equity markets in the US and globally across 65 countries. Yet Fed policies functioned in a procyclical manner for capital flows to ...

    2013| Marcel Fratzscher, Marco Lo Duca, Roland Straub
  • Diskussionspapiere 1286 / 2013

    Noncausality and Inflation Persistence

    We use noncausal autoregressions to examine the persistence properties of quarterly U.S. consumer price inflation from 1970:1.2012:2. These nonlinear models capture the autocorrelation structure of the inflation series as accurately as their conventional causal counterparts, but they allow for persistence to depend on the size and sign of shocks to inflation as well as the inflation rate. Inflation ...

    2013| Markku Lanne
  • Diskussionspapiere 1285 / 2013

    A Noncausal Autoregressive Model with Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to U.S. Inflation

    We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The model .fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence has declined in the early 1980.s and slightly increased again in the late 1990.s. Estimates of the new Keynesian Phillips curve indicate that current inflation ...

    2013| Markku Lanne, Jani Luoto
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    The Global Dimension of Inflation: Evidence from Factor-Augmented Phillips Curve

    We examine the global dimension of inflation in 24 OECD countries between 1980 and 2007 in a Phillips curve framework. We decompose output gaps and changes in unit labour costs into common (or global) and idiosyncratic components using a factor analysis and introduce these components separately in the regression. We find that the common component of changes in unit labour costs has a notable impact ...

    In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 75 (2013), 1, S. 103-122 | Sandra Eickmeier, Katharina Pijnenburg
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area: Does Catching up Explain the Development?

    In the debate on global imbalances, the euro area countries received inreasing attention since the outbreak of the financial crisis. While the current account is on balance for the entire area, divergences between individual member states have increased since the introduction of the common currency and are part of the excessive imbalances procedure. This paper explores the determinants of the imbalances ...

    In: Review of International Economics 21 (2013), 1, S. 6-17 | Ansgar Belke, Christian Dreger
534 results, from 451
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