Der Beginn der globalen Finanzkrise und die Implementierung einer außerordentlich expansiven Geldpolitik in vielen Volkswirtschaften lösten ein erneutes Interesse an den Auswirkungen globaler und ausländischer Schocks in einzelnen Ländern aus. Zugleich hat die länderübergreifende Heterogenität der makroökonomischen und finanziellen Auswirkungen von Schocks die Notwendigkeit unterstrichen, jene Faktoren, ...
We estimate the dynamic effects of government spending shocks, using time-varying volatility in US data modeled through a Markov switching process. We find that the average government spending multiplier is significantly and persistently above one, driven by a crowding-in of private consumption and non-residential investment. We rationalize the results empirically through a contemporaneously countercyclical ...
This paper investigates the impact of natural disasters on price stability in the euro area. We estimate panel and country-specific structural vector autoregression (VAR) models by combining estimated damages of disaster events with monthly data for the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for all euro area countries over the period 1996-2021. Besides estimating the effect on overall headline ...
Owner-occupied housing costs represent an important expenditure for households and should be included in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. Conceptual and practical challenges must be resolved before this can be implemented. Estimates suggest that these costs would have a small impact on monetary policy. At the same time, different degrees of home ownership in the euro area mean that their inclusion ...
Given its central role in public accountability and in the formation of expectations, it is important to reflect on ways to improve the ECB’s communication policy. Communication should not generally strive for maximum transparency. The optimum degree of transparency varies between different aspects of monetary policy and banking supervision. Although the ECB already communicates very openly with the ...
DENeB brings together researchers in the Berlin area who are working on themes related to Development Economics. The seminar series gives invited guests the opportunity to present their work and receive feedback from members of the network.
We propose a behavioral heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model in which monetary policy is amplified through indirect general equilibrium effects, fiscal multipliers can be larger than one and which delivers empirically-realistic intertemporal marginal propensities to consume. Simultaneously, the model resolves the forward guidance puzzle, remains stable at the effective lower bound and determinate ...
Headline inflation in the euro area jumped to more than three percent in the summer after years of relatively low inflation rates well below the target of close to but below two percent set by the ECB until July 2021. One of the main reasons for the rise in inflation is the increase in energy prices since the beginning of 2021. However, there are further indications that inflation in the euro area ...