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Diskussionspapiere 1854 / 2020

The Dynamic Impact of FX Interventions on Financial Markets

Evidence on the effectiveness of FX interventions is either limited to short horizons or hampered by debatable identification. We address these limitations by identifying a structural vector autoregressive model for the daily frequency with an external instrument. Generally, we find, for freely floating currencies, that FX intervention shocks significantly affect exchange rates and that this impact ...

2020| Lukas Menkhoff, Malte Rieth, Tobias Stöhr
Statement

The ECB has sent a strong signal that it takes its mandate seriously

DIW president Marcel Fratzscher comments today's announcements by the ECB as follows: 

12.09.2019| Marcel Fratzscher
Monographien

Public or Private? The Future of Money: In-Depth Analysis

Stablecoins issued by large tech companies pose a significant challenge for traditional fiat money. In this study, we highlight the importance of a public-private-cooperation in dealing with this topic, where central banks closely work with stablecoin issuers in issuing synthetic central bank digital currency (sCBDC). This framework minimizes the risks of private money and utilises the technological ...

Bruxelles: European Parliament, 2019, 23 S.
(Monetary Dialogue Papers)
| Chi Hyun Kim, Alexander Kriwoluzky
Statement

Mario Draghi will be remembered as a great European

DIW president Marcel Fratzscher comments today's announcements by the ECB as follows: 

24.10.2019| Marcel Fratzscher
DIW Roundup 128 / 2019

Measuring the Effect of Foreign Exchange Intervention Policies on Exchange Rates

Central bank intervention in foreign exchange markets is a common tool to influence exchange rates. Although central bankers are convinced of their policy’s effectiveness, econometric estimates of precise effects differ across studies. The difficulties with estimations mostly result from a lack of adequate data. This article highlights different econometric approaches that aim to mitigate estimation ...

2019| Lukas Boer
Research Project

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Structural Reforms in the Euro Area

The aim of this project is to estimate the impact of monetary policy on structural reforms in the euro area. We first identify exogenous ECB policy changes through an event study that extracts the unexpected variation in euro area interest rates on policy announcement days. We estimate then the effect of monetary policy shocks on the number of reforms and investigate whether the effect is stronger...

Current Project| Macroeconomics
Statement

ECB monetary policy will for some time remain more expansionary than most in Germany expect

DIW president Marcel Fratzscher on the European Central Bank's latest announcements:

07.03.2019| Marcel Fratzscher
Diskussionspapiere 1792 / 2019

Exchange Rates, Foreign Currency Exposure and Sovereign Risk

We quantify the causal link between exchange rate movements and sovereign risk of 16 major emerging market economies (EMEs) by means of structural vector autoregressive models (SVARs) using data from 10/2004 through 12/2016. We apply a novel data based identification approach of the structural shocks that allows to account for the complex interrelations within the triad of exchange rates, sovereign ...

2019| Kerstin Bernoth, Helmut Herwartz
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Bayesian Inference for Structural Vector Autoregressions IdentifiEd by Markov-Switching Heteroskedasticity

In this study, Bayesian inference is developed for structural vector autoregressive models in which the structural parameters are identified via Markov-switching heteroskedasticity. In such a model, restrictions that are just-identifying in the homoskedastic case, become over-identifying and can be tested. A set of parametric restrictions is derived under which the structural matrix is globally or ...

In: Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 113 (2020), 103862 | Helmut Lütkepohl, Tomasz Wozniak
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Inflation Expectations and the Recovery from the Great Depression in Germany

A regime shift toward increased inflation expectations is credited with jump-starting the recov- ery from the Great Depression in the United States. What role did inflation expectations play in Germany that experienced a similarly successful economic upturn in the 1930s? We study infla- tion expectations in the German recovery across several methods: we conduct a narrative study of media sources; we estimate ...

In: Explorations in Economic History 75 (2020), 101305, 18 S. | Volker Daniel, Lucas ter Steege
382 results, from 1