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Making a nation-wide randomized field experiment:: Lessons from the Finnish basic income trial

The original goal of the Finnish experiment of 2017 and 2018 was to try to get some evidence on how a new social policy instrument mimicking a basic income would work and what kind of behavioral consequences it would have. The realized experiment was restricted to people aged 25–58 already receiving a labor market subsidy or unemployment allowance and a total of 2,000 participants were...

28.01.2020| Veranstaltungsrückblick
Berlin Lunchtime Meeting

Wealth inequality and wealth taxes – an OECD Perspective

Sarah Perret, OECD, will present findings from a recent report on The Role and Design of Net Wealth Taxes in the OECD. The presentation will give an overview of the cases for and against net wealth taxes, as well as describe how wealth taxes have been designed in practice in the OECD countries that currently have or historically had net wealth taxes. Inheritance taxes, which constitute an...

28.11.2019| Sarah Perret, Stefan Bach
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Macroeconomic Effects of Government Spending: The Great Recession Was (Really) Different

We estimate the effect of government spending shocks on the U.S. economy with a time‐varying parameter vector autoregression. The recent Great Recession period appears to be characterized by uniquely large impulse responses of output to fiscal shocks. Moreover, the particularity of this period is underlined by highly unusual responses of several other variables. The pattern of fiscal shock responses ...

In: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 51 (2019), 5, S. 1237-1264 | Mathias Klein, Ludger Linnemann
Diskussionspapiere 1806 / 2019

Monetary Policy and Household Deleveraging

This study investigates the interrelation between the household leverage cycle, collateral constraints, and monetary policy. Using data on the U.S. economy, we find that a contractionary monetary policy shock leads to a large and significant fall in economic activity during periods of household deleveraging. In contrast, monetary policy shocks only have insignificant effects during a household leveraging ...

2019| Martin Harding, Mathias Klein
Diskussionspapiere 1796 / 2019

Bayesian Structural VAR Models: A New Approach for Prior Beliefs on Impulse Responses

Structural VAR models are frequently identified using sign restrictions on contemporaneous impulse responses. We develop a methodology that can handle a set of prior distributions that is much larger than the one currently allowed for by traditional methods. We then develop an importance sampler that explores the posterior distribution just as conveniently as with traditional approaches. This makes ...

2019| Martin Bruns, Michele Piffer
DIW Weekly Report 15/16 / 2020

Government Bonds: European Banks Still Display Strong Home Bias: Requiring Capital Backing Could Worsen Problem

The European sovereign debt crisis illustrated how the stability of the entire financial system suffers when banks and sovereigns become too intertwined. However, there has been seemingly little success in reducing the bank-sovereign nexus in the decade since the crisis. As this Weekly Report shows, home bias remains strong and many European banks are still primarily purchasing domestic government ...

2020| Dorothea Schäfer, Michael Stöckel, Henriette Weser
Research Project

Framework Contract for Workshops on Current Issues of Economic and Financial Policy

Conceptual and technical preparation and execution of workshops on current topics in close coordination with thematically responsible staff of the BMF (up to 6 workshops per year)

Current Project| Forecasting and Economic Policy, Macroeconomics
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Austerity, Inequality, and Private Debt Overhang

Using panel data of 17 OECD countries for 1980–2011, we find that the distributional consequences of fiscal consolidations depend significantly on the level of private indebtedness. Austerity leads to a strong and persistent increase in income inequality during periods of private debt overhang. In contrast, there are no discernible distributional effects when private debt is low. This result is robust ...

In: European Journal of Political Economy 57 (2019), S. 89-106 | Mathias Klein, Roland Winkler
Diskussionspapiere 1821 / 2019

Tax and Spending Shocks in the Open Economy: Are the Deficits Twins?

We present evidence on the open economy consequences of US fiscal policy shocks identified through proxy-instrumental variables. Tax shocks and government spending shocks that raise the government budget deficit lead to persistent current account deficits. In particular, the negative response of the current account to exogenous tax reductions through a surge in the demand for imports is among the strongest ...

2019| Mathias Klein, Ludger Linnemann
DIW Weekly Report 31 / 2019

Public Investment a Key Prerequisite for Private Sector Activity

Ten years after the 2008 financial crisis, in the euro area investment is still below the pre-crisis level. Public and private investment growth is so weak that capital per worker (capital intensity) has virtually remained constant. An increase in public investment activity could ultimately stimulate private investment. Estimates for the euro area show that an increase in public investment by one billion ...

2019| Marius Clemens, Marius Goerge, Claus Michelsen
257 results, from 11