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Infographic
22.08.2023
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Diskussionspapiere 2061 / 2023
Housing bubbles and crashes are catastrophic events for economies, implying enormous destruction of housing wealth, financial default risks, construction unemployment, and business cycle downturns. This paper investigates whether governmental housing policies can affect economies’ propensity to build up speculative house price bubbles. Specifically, we focus on the liberalization effects of rent and ...
2023| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Sebastian Kohl, Florian Müller
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) is a simple and powerful non-parametric machine learning algorithm that automatizes the selection of non-linear terms in regression models. In this study, we propose using MARS in a spatial regression framework to account for potential non-linearities and spatial effects in spatial regression models. Using a relatively large data set of 17,000 dwellings ...
In:
Papers in Regional Science
102 (2023), 4, S. 871-896
| Fernando A. López, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
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Research Project
The objective of HouseInc is to analyse interlinked dimensions of housing inequalities in the context of marginalized communities. HouseInc will empirically examine economic, social, and ecological drivers and assess impacts of various indicators on housing inequality to derive policy recommendations that foster the adoption of effective measures addressing housing inequality across Europe....
Current Project| Macroeconomics
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DIW Weekly Report 1/2 / 2024
High construction prices and worsened financing conditions are weighing on the construction industry, especially build-ing construction. Despite a nominal increase of six percent in construction expenses in 2023, it decreased by just over one percent in inflation-adjusted terms. In 2024, the nominal construction volume is likely to contract by around 3.5 percent, declining for the first time since ...
2024| Martin Gornig, Laura Pagenhardt
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Brown Bag Seminar Industrial Economics
This paper relates incomplete price competition among real estate agents to inattentive home sellers. I exploit a recent legal reform in Germany which specifically aimed to increase price competition among real estate agents by raising the cost salience of sellers. I find that the reform backfired and real estate agents exploited the transition to increase their total commission rate by 0.3...
03.05.2023| Julius Stoll, Hertie School
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DIW Weekly Report 1/2 / 2023
Following the construction boom of recent years in Germany, inflation and supply bottlenecks hit the industry hard in 2022. While nominal construction volume increased by nearly 14 percent, it decreased by two percent when adjusted for inflation. Residential construction, which is urgently needed, was particularly affected. In 2023 and 2024, it is expected that investors will show restraint and that ...
2023| Martin Gornig, Laura Pagenhardt
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DIW Weekly Report 32/33 / 2023
According to the latest review report of the Council of Experts on Climate Change, the German building sector failed to meet its greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in 2022. This is in part because investments in energy-efficient building refurbishment—supported by all kinds of policy measures— has neither been low nor shown a consistently positive trend over the past ten years. Furthermore, ...
2023| Martin Gornig, Katrin Klarhöfer
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. At the heart of our analysis is the combination of data from a tailored in-person household survey, past sale offerings, satellite imagery on developable land, and an information treatment (RCT). As novel finding, we show that price expectations show no evidence for momentum-effects in the long run. We also do ...
In:
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
218 (2024), S. 379–398
| Niklas Gohl, Peter Haan, Claus Michelsen, Felix Weinhardt
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Zeitungs- und Blogbeiträge
In:
Transforming Economies
(06.12.2023), [Online-Artikel]
| Martin Gornig