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1386 results, from 1311
  • Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 2001

    Markov-Switching Procedures for Dating the Euro-Zone Business Cycle

    Zur Identifikation und Datierung des Konjunkturzyklus in der Eurozone wird der von Hamilton zur Analyse des US-Konjunkturzyklus vorgeschlagene Markov-Regimewechselansatz auf vierteljährliche aggregierte und länderspezifische Zeitreihen des realen Bruttoinlandsproduktwachstums der zwei letzten Jahrzehnte angewandt. Mit den statistisch kongruenten und ökonomisch sinnvollen Modellen werden Regimewechsel ...

    2001| Hans-Martin Krolzig
  • Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 2001

    Trend and Cycle in the Euro-Area: A Permanent-Transitory Decomposition Using a Cointegrated VAR Model

    This paper investigates the Euro-area business cycle using a multivariate autoregressive time series model with cointegration. The cointegration restrictions help to identify permanent and transitory shocks which form the stochastic part of trend and cyclical GDP, respectively. The identification allows for a historical decomposition of Euro-area GDP into trend and cycle. Further, the relative importance ...

    2001| Christian Schumacher
  • Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 2001

    A New Indicator Based on Neftçi's Approach for Predicting Turning Points of the Euro-Zone Growth Cycle

    "[...] in many situations a decision does not have to be made immediately, but can be delayed until additional information has been acquired. Sequential analysis seems particularly applicable to the problem of predicting turning points in the business cycle" (Palash and Radecki, 1985). Elaborating on this idea, we propose a new approach to predict cyclical turning points in the Euro-zone using the ...

    2001| Jacques Anas, Muriel Nguiffo-Boyom
  • Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 2001

    Business Cycle Extraction of Euro-Zone GDP: Direct versus Indirect Approach

    Most of the Euro-zone economic short-term indicators are computed through aggregation from Member States data. The seasonally adjusted figures can be calculated by seasonally adjusting the aggregate (direct approach) or aggregating the seasonally adjusted national data (indirect approach). Statistical and practical considerations to choose the right strategy are given in the paper. An application to ...

    2001| Roberto Astolfi, Dominique Ladiray, Gian Luigi Mazzi
  • Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 2001

    Seasonal Adjustment Methods and the Determination of Turning Points of the EMU Business Cycle

    In this paper, we investigate the impact of the adjustment for seasonal effects with different seasonal adjustment methods, the possible pre-treatment for calendar effects and the different order of aggregation and adjustment for the determination of the turning points of the European business cycle. The European business cycle is represented first by the GDP series (referring to the classical definition ...

    2001| Kirsten Lommatzsch, Sabine Stephan
  • Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 2001

    Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods

    Der Aufsatz untersucht einige populäre Methoden zur Messung des Output-Gaps auf der Basis von aggregierten Daten für die Euro-Zone. Obwohl die Methoden einige wichtige gemeinsame Eigenschaften aufweisen, zeigen auch sie erhebliche Unterschiede, insbesondere ist die Korrelation zwischen Output-Gap-Schätzungen auf Basis verschiedener Methoden niedrig, die Ansätze implizieren differierende Wendepunkte, ...

    2001| Odile Chagny, Jörg Döpke
  • Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 2001

    Is There a Common European Business Cycle? New Insights from a Frequency Domain Analysis

    Um die Synchronität der Konjunkturzyklen in Europa zu bewerten, wird die Zykluskomponente der Industrieproduktion in fünf europäischen Ländern identifiziert, indem der Baxter-King-Filter (1999) angewendet wird. Die Hypothese eines gemeinsamen Konjunkturzyklus wird durch einen Test auf einen gemeinsamen Zyklus im Frequenzbereich nach Breitung und Candelon (2000) überprüft. Ein gemeinsamer Konjunkturzyklus ...

    2001| Jörg Breitung, Bertrand Candelon
  • Economic Bulletin 7 / 2002

    International Comparison of Industrial Development in the European Context - The Problems

    2002| Dorothea Lucke, Jörg-Peter Weiß
  • Diskussionspapiere 475 / 2005

    What Can Happiness Research Tell Us about Altruism? Evidence from the German Socio-Economic Panel

    Much progress has been made in recent years on developing and applying a direct measure of utility using survey questions on subjective well-being. In this paper we explore whether this new type of measurement can be fruitfully applied to the study of interdependent utility in general, and altruism between parents and children in particular. We introduce an appropriate econometric methodology and, ...

    2005| Johannes Schwarze, Rainer Winkelmann
  • Diskussionspapiere 571 / 2006

    The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations

    We investigate the relevance of the Carroll's sticky information model of inflation expectations for four major European economies (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom). Using survey data on household and expert inflation expectations we argue that the model adequately captures the dynamics of household inflation expectations. We estimate two alternative parametrizations of the sticky information ...

    2006| Jörg Döpke, Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Jiri Slacalek
1386 results, from 1311
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