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DIW Weekly Report 24/25 / 2020

Germany Hit Hard by the Global Recession as Uncertainty Weighs Heavy: Editorial

2020| Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Marius Clemens, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Marcel Fratzscher, Stefan Gebauer, Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Laura Pagenhardt, Malte Rieth, Thore Schlaak
DIW Weekly Report 24/25 / 2020

Coronavirus Pandemic Plunging Global Economy into a Serious Recession: DIW Economic Outlook

The consequences of the ongoing 2020 coronavirus pandemic are leaving deep marks on the global economy. In the first quarter of 2020, global production sank by 15.5 percent over the course of the worldwide lockdown. Since containment measures in many countries were mainly implemented during the second quarter of 2020, the slump in the first half of 2020 is likely to be even more severe overall. Due ...

2020| Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Stefan Gebauer, Malte Rieth
DIW Weekly Report 24/25 / 2020

German Economy Slowly Recovering Following a Deep Slump: DIW Economic Outlook

The coronavirus recession has left deep marks on the German economy and despite economic policy action, it is likely to heal only slowly. The partial easing of the lockdown and a gradual revival of global value chains are generating positive stimuli, but massive income losses will curb demand for some time to come. The German Federal Government was able to avoid the worst by implementing measures to ...

2020| Claus Michelsen, Marius Clemens, Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Laura Pagenhardt, Thore Schlaak
Press Release

Joint Economic Forecast: Economy in Shock – Fiscal Policy to Counteract

The coronavirus pandemic is triggering a severe recession in Germany. Economic output will shrink by 4.2 percent this year. This is what the leading economics research institutes expect in their spring report. For next year, they are forecasting a recovery and growth of 5.8 percent. Gross domestic product is likely to have shrunk by 1.9 percent in the first quarter of 2020 alone. In the second quarter, ...

08.04.2020
Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 1 / 2020

Debt and Financial Sentiment: Early Keynes on Balance Sheet Effects of Asset Price Changes

Das Papier untersucht den Zusammenhang zwischen finanzieller Stimmung und privater Verschuldung und verwendet Keynes’ ‚A Treatise on Money‘ als konzeptionellen Hintergrund. In der Antwort auf seine Kritiker nach der Veröffentlichung seiner ‚General Theory‘ sprach Keynes bekanntlich von unerwarteten, gewaltigen Veränderungen bei der konventionellen Vermögensbewertung, wenn Zweifel an der Werthaltigkeit ...

2020| Korkut Alp Ertürk, Jake Jennings
DIW Weekly Report 12 / 2020

Coronavirus Causing Major Economic Shock to the Global Economy: DIW Economic Outlook

The ongoing corona pandemic is causing a major shock to the global economy. In the coming months, many countries are expected to suffer severe economic downturns. Sealing off entire regions disrupts supply chains, resulting in production losses and falls in consumption. The global economy is expected to grow by as little as 2.5 percent this year instead of by the 3.7 percent forecasted previously. ...

2020| Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Stefan Gebauer, Malte Rieth
DIW Weekly Report 12 / 2020

Coronavirus Plunges the German Economy into Recession: DIW Economic Outlook

The spread of the coronavirus worldwide is exerting considerable pressure on the economy. Compounded by the lack of quality data, model uncertainty, and uncertainty over government responses, economic forecasts are subject to even greater uncertainty than usual. It is difficult to predict how the pandemic will progress. Figures on the impact of the virus, obtained by comparing it with previous epidemics, ...

2020| Claus Michelsen, Marius Clemens, Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Thore Schlaak
Statement

The ECB is sending a strong signal that now also governments need to act more decisively

DIW president Marcel Fratzscher comments today's announcements by the ECB as follows:

12.03.2020| Marcel Fratzscher
DIW Weekly Report 37 / 2019

Growth Program Needed as the Foundation of the German Economy Crumbles: Editorial

2019| Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Marius Clemens, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Marcel Fratzscher, Stefan Gebauer, Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Malte Rieth, Thore Schlaak
DIW Weekly Report 37 / 2019

The Global Economy and the Euro Area: Uncertainty Weighing on World Trade and Industry: DIW Economic Outlook

The ongoing trade conflicts initiated by the US and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit are negatively affecting the global economy. Global trade and investment activity, and thus in many places industrial output, are the areas most impacted. Consumption, however, is continuing to support the economy in many countries. DIW Berlin is expecting global GDP to grow to 3.7 percent this year and to slightly ...

2019| Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Stefan Gebauer, Malte Rieth, Thore Schlaak
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