We estimate the effect of government spending shocks on the US economy with a time-varying parameter vector autoregression. The recent Great Recession period appears to be characterized by uniquely large impulse responses of output to fiscal shocks.
The German economy will keep on growing amid risks although growth will slow down somewhat. GDP will continue to grow noticeably at 1.8 percent this year, 1.7 percent next year, and 1.8 percent in 2020. Private household incomes in particular—and .
The German economy continues to soar: the German Institute for Economic Research’s (DIW Berlin) Economic Barometer is at its highest reading in seven years. The index score for the first quarter landed at 118 points, an increase of almost four
We propose a new instrument to identify uncertainty shocks in a SVAR model with external instruments. The instrument is constructed by exploiting variations in the price of gold around events that capture periods of changes in uncertainty. The ...
According to DIW Berlin estimates, the German economy should grow by 1.9 percent this year and 1.7 percent next year. The GDP growth forecast has thus decreased by 0.5 percentage points for this year and by 0.2 percentage points for the coming year .
Compared to last year, the German economy is weakening noticeably. Orders from abroad are decreasing and domestic companies are holding back on investments. However, capacity utilization remains high—also because the government will boost the .
The political conditions for growth are currently dominated by increased uncertainty; this is particularly weighing on investment activity and slowing down the global economy. DIW Berlin is lowering its forecast slightly for this year and the next to
Compared to last year, the German economy is weakening noticeably. Orders from abroad are decreasing and domestic companies are holding back on investments. However, capacity utilization remains high—also because the government will boost the incom