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  • DIW Weekly Report 24 / 2023

    DIW Economic Outlook: German Economy Fighting Its Way out of Winter Recession

    The German economy has returned to a recovery course following a slight recession over the winter. Although the war in Ukraine, record inflation, and feared gas shortages have taken their toll on the German economy, a drastic slump failed to materialize. The German economy remained relatively unscathed, only experiencing a slight recession over the past six months; in the final quarter of 2022 and ...

    2023| Timm Bönke, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Guido Baldi, Hella Engerer, Pia Hüttl, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Frederik Kurcz, Theresa Neef, Laura Pagenhardt, Werner Roeger, Marie Rulliere, Jan-Christopher Scherer, Teresa Schildmann, Ruben Staffa, Kristin Trautmann, Jana Wittich
  • Press Release

    Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2024: Headwinds from Germany and abroad: institutes revise forecast significantly downwards

    According to Germany’s five leading economic research institutes, the country’s economy shows cyclical and structural weaknesses. In their spring report, they revised their GDP forecast for the current year significantly downward to 0.1 percent. In the recent fall report, the figure was still 1.3 percent. Expectations for the coming year are almost unchanged at 1.4 percent (previously 1.5 percent). ...

    27.03.2024
  • Press Release

    Joint Economic Forecast: Purchasing power returns ‒ political uncertainty high

    According to the Joint Economic Forecast, Germany's gross domestic product declines by 0.6% in 2023. This is a strong downward revision of 0.9 percentage points from the forecast made in spring 2023. "The most important reason for this revision is that industry and private con­sumption are recovering more slowly than we expected in spring," says Oliver Holtemöller, Vice President and Head of the Macroeconomics ...

    28.09.2023
  • DIW Weekly Report 36/37 / 2023

    German Economy Currently Scarcely Making Headway

    Following the winter recession and stagnation in the second quarter of 2023, the economic upswing is proceeding at a sluggish pace, contrary to expectations over the summer. Weak foreign demand and ongoing inflation have proven to be slowing economic growth. For the time being, private consumption is not driving the German economy and is likely to develop in the second half of 2023 only haltingly. ...

    2023| Timm Bönke, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Guido Baldi, Hella Engerer, Pia Hüttl, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Frederik Kurcz, Theresa Neef, Laura Pagenhardt, Werner Roeger, Marie Rulliere, Jan-Christopher Scherer, Teresa Schildmann, Ruben Staffa, Kristin Trautmann, Jana Wittich
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Estimating the Marginal Costs of Road Renewals: Evidence from a Duration Approach

    Within an analytical approach that mirrors the relationship between road deterioration, traffic load, and road renewal, we estimate the marginal costs of road renewals as part of a social marginal cost scheme for road charging. Based on a comprehensive data set for German motor ways, we estimate a Weibull dura tion model with shared frailties that account for unobserved heterogeneity, including covariates ...

    In: Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 57 (2023), 2, S. 104-130 | Neil Murray, Heike Link
  • DIW Weekly Report 1/2 / 2023

    Construction Boom Coming to an End; Change in Policy Strategy Needed

    Following the construction boom of recent years in Germany, inflation and supply bottlenecks hit the industry hard in 2022. While nominal construction volume increased by nearly 14 percent, it decreased by two percent when adjusted for inflation. Residential construction, which is urgently needed, was particularly affected. In 2023 and 2024, it is expected that investors will show restraint and that ...

    2023| Martin Gornig, Laura Pagenhardt
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Insolvency Regimes and Cross-Border Investment Decisions

    This paper investigates the effect of insolvency regulation reforms on cross-border debt and equity investments at aggregate and sectoral levels. Using disaggregated data from the ECB’s Securities Holdings Statistics by Sector (SHSS) database and the OECD indicators on efficiency of insolvency regulations, we find that investors increase their debt and equity holdings in the countries that undertook ...

    In: Journal of International Money and Finance 131 (2023), 102795, 24 S. | Tatsiana Kliatskova, Loïc Baptiste Savatier, Michael Schmidt
  • DIW Weekly Report 1/2 / 2024

    Decline in Nominal Construction Volume Expected for the First Time since the Financial Crisis; Residential Construction Situation Worsening

    High construction prices and worsened financing conditions are weighing on the construction industry, especially build-ing construction. Despite a nominal increase of six percent in construction expenses in 2023, it decreased by just over one percent in inflation-adjusted terms. In 2024, the nominal construction volume is likely to contract by around 3.5 percent, declining for the first time since ...

    2024| Martin Gornig, Laura Pagenhardt
  • Diskussionspapiere 2067 / 2024

    The Non-linear Impact of Risk Tolerance on Entrepreneurial Profit and Business Survival

    Entrepreneurs tend to be risk tolerant but is more risk tolerance always better? In a sample of about 2,100 small businesses, we find an inverted U-shaped relation between risk tolerance and profitability. This relationship holds in a simple bilateral regression and also when we control for a large set of individual and business characteristics. Apparently, one major transmission goes from risk tolerance ...

    2024| Melanie Koch, Lukas Menkhoff
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Global Risk and the Dollar

    The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We investigate the dollar’s role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a Bayesian proxy structural vector autoregressive model. We identify global risk shocks using high-frequency asset-price surprises around narratively selected events. Global risk shocks appreciate the dollar, induce tighter global ...

    In: Journal of Monetary Economics (2024), im Ersch. [online first: 2024-01-11] | Georgios Georgiadis, Gernot J. Müller, Ben Schumann
996 results, from 1
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