DIW president Marcel Fratzscher comments today's announcements by the ECB as follows:
Central bank intervention in foreign exchange markets is a common tool to influence exchange rates. Although central bankers are convinced of their policy’s effectiveness, econometric estimates of precise effects differ across studies. The difficulties with estimations mostly result from a lack of adequate data. This article highlights different econometric approaches that aim to mitigate estimation ...
Stablecoins issued by large tech companies pose a significant challenge for traditional fiat money. In this study, we highlight the importance of a public-private-cooperation in dealing with this topic, where central banks closely work with stablecoin issuers in issuing synthetic central bank digital currency (sCBDC). This framework minimizes the risks of private money and utilises the technological ...
Evidence on the effectiveness of FX interventions is either limited to short horizons or hampered by debatable identification. We address these limitations by identifying a structural vector autoregressive model for the daily frequency with an external instrument. Generally, we find, for freely floating currencies, that FX intervention shocks significantly affect exchange rates and that this impact ...
The aim of this project is to estimate the impact of monetary policy on structural reforms in the euro area. We first identify exogenous ECB policy changes through an event study that extracts the unexpected variation in euro area interest rates on policy announcement days. We estimate then the effect of monetary policy shocks on the number of reforms and investigate whether the effect is stronger...
DIW president Marcel Fratzscher on the European Central Bank's latest announcements:
We quantify the causal link between exchange rate movements and sovereign risk of 16 major emerging market economies (EMEs) by means of structural vector autoregressive models (SVARs) using data from 10/2004 through 12/2016. We apply a novel data based identification approach of the structural shocks that allows to account for the complex interrelations within the triad of exchange rates, sovereign ...
In this study, Bayesian inference is developed for structural vector autoregressive models in which the structural parameters are identified via Markov-switching heteroskedasticity. In such a model, restrictions that are just-identifying in the homoskedastic case, become over-identifying and can be tested. A set of parametric restrictions is derived under which the structural matrix is globally or ...
To cushion the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic, central banks have taken far-reaching monetary policy measures. The US Federal Reserve has lowered its interest rates and, like the European Central Bank, has expanded its bond purchase programs. However, it is questionable whether these measures are having the desired effect of calming the markets and supporting the real economy. It is...
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