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Diskussionspapiere 1906 / 2020

Exchange Rates and the Information Channel of Monetary Policy

We disentangle the effects of monetary policy announcements on real economic variables into an interest rate shock component and a central bank information shock component. We identify both components using changes in interest rate futures and in exchange rates around monetary policy announcements. While the volatility of interest rate surprises declines around the Great Recession, the volatility of ...

2020| Oliver Holtemöller, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Boreum Kwak
Research Project

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Structural Reforms in the Euro Area

The aim of this project is to estimate the impact of monetary policy on structural reforms in the euro area. We first identify exogenous ECB policy changes through an event study that extracts the unexpected variation in euro area interest rates on policy announcement days. We estimate then the effect of monetary policy shocks on the number of reforms and investigate whether the effect is stronger...

Current Project| Macroeconomics
Diskussionspapiere 1792 / 2019

Exchange Rates, Foreign Currency Exposure and Sovereign Risk

We quantify the causal link between exchange rate movements and sovereign risk of 16 major emerging market economies (EMEs) by means of structural vector autoregressive models (SVARs) using data from 10/2004 through 12/2016. We apply a novel data based identification approach of the structural shocks that allows to account for the complex interrelations within the triad of exchange rates, sovereign ...

2019| Kerstin Bernoth, Helmut Herwartz
Diskussionspapiere 1854 / 2020

The Dynamic Impact of FX Interventions on Financial Markets

Evidence on the effectiveness of FX interventions is either limited to short horizons or hampered by debatable identification. We address these limitations by identifying a structural vector autoregressive model for the daily frequency with an external instrument. Generally, we find, for freely floating currencies, that FX intervention shocks significantly affect exchange rates and that this impact ...

2020| Lukas Menkhoff, Malte Rieth, Tobias Stöhr
DIW Roundup 128 / 2019

Measuring the Effect of Foreign Exchange Intervention Policies on Exchange Rates

Central bank intervention in foreign exchange markets is a common tool to influence exchange rates. Although central bankers are convinced of their policy’s effectiveness, econometric estimates of precise effects differ across studies. The difficulties with estimations mostly result from a lack of adequate data. This article highlights different econometric approaches that aim to mitigate estimation ...

2019| Lukas Boer
Monographien

Public or Private? The Future of Money: In-Depth Analysis

Stablecoins issued by large tech companies pose a significant challenge for traditional fiat money. In this study, we highlight the importance of a public-private-cooperation in dealing with this topic, where central banks closely work with stablecoin issuers in issuing synthetic central bank digital currency (sCBDC). This framework minimizes the risks of private money and utilises the technological ...

Bruxelles: European Parliament, 2019, 23 S.
(Monetary Dialogue Papers)
| Chi Hyun Kim, Alexander Kriwoluzky
Statement

Mario Draghi will be remembered as a great European

DIW president Marcel Fratzscher comments today's announcements by the ECB as follows: 

24.10.2019| Marcel Fratzscher
Statement

The ECB has sent a strong signal that it takes its mandate seriously

DIW president Marcel Fratzscher comments today's announcements by the ECB as follows: 

12.09.2019| Marcel Fratzscher
Statement

ECB monetary policy will for some time remain more expansionary than most in Germany expect

DIW president Marcel Fratzscher on the European Central Bank's latest announcements:

07.03.2019| Marcel Fratzscher
Diskussionspapiere 1781 / 2019

The Short-Run Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks on Credit Risk: An Analysis of the Euro Area

We examine the credit channel of monetary policy from 2000 to 2015 in the Euro Area using daily monetary policy shock and credit risk measures in an autoregressive distributed lag model. We find that an expansionary monetary policy shock leads to a short-run increase in the credit risk of non-financial corporations. This dysfunctionality of the credit channel is driven by the crisis-dominated post-2009 ...

2019| Chi Hyun Kim, Lars Other
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