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Refereed essays Web of Science
We investigate how internal distribution motives can affect the implementation of an important macroeconomic policy: capital controls. To do this, we study one of history’s largest debt repatriations, which took place under strict capital controls in 1930s Germany, providing a wealth of quantitative and historical evidence. We show that the authorities kept private repatriations under strict control, ...
In:
Journal of Political Economy
132 (2024), 6, im Ersch.
| Andrea Papadia, Claudio A. Schioppa
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Statement
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided today to keep the key interest rate constant. Here is a statement from Marcel Fratzscher, President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin):
14.12.2023| Marcel Fratzscher
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Externe Monographien
This dissertation collects empirical work in the field of fiscal and monetary policy, and their interaction. It comprises four chapters. In Chapter 1, I investigate the dynamic effects of tax changes on the cross-sectional distribution of disposable income in the US using a narrative identification approach. I distinguish between changes in personal and corporate income taxes and quantify the distributional ...
Berlin:
Freie Universität Berlin,
2023,
206 S.
| Stephanie Ettmeier
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Diskussionspapiere 2081 / 2024
We consider structural vector autoregressions identified through stochastic volatility. Our focus is on whether a particular structural shock is identified by heteroskedasticity without the need to impose any sign or exclusion restrictions. Three contributions emerge from our exercise: (i) a set of conditions under which the matrix containing structural parameters is partially or globally unique; (ii) ...
2024| Helmut Lütkepohl, Fei Shang, Luis Uzeda, Tomasz Woźniak
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Diskussionspapiere 2084 / 2024
Exploiting the heteroscedasticity of the changes in short-term and long-term interest rates and exchange rates around the FOMC announcement, we identify three structural monetary policy shocks. We eliminate the predictable part of the shocks and study their effects on financial variables and macro variables. The first shock resembles a conventional monetary policy shock, and the second resembles an ...
2024| Oliver Holtemöller, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Boreum Kwak
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Statement
DIW president Marcel Fratzscher on the results of today's meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB:
25.01.2024| Marcel Fratzscher
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DIW Weekly Report 24/25/26 / 2024
The German economy began recovering at the beginning of 2024 and has developed better than initially expected. A sharp rise in construction investment, albeit more of a flash in the pan as a result of mild winter weather, along with strong goods exports helped the economy onto its recov¬ery path and masked the disappointing development of private consumption, which sank unexpectedly. However, consumer ...
2024| Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Guido Baldi, Nina Maria Brehl, Hella Engerer, Angelina Hackmann, Pia Hüttl, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Frederik Kurcz, Laura Pagenhardt, Marie Rullière, Jan-Christopher Scherer, Teresa Schildmann, Ruben Staffa, Kristin Trautmann
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DIW Weekly Report 10/11 / 2024
The German economy will likely contract in the first quarter of 2024 due to still heightened inflation and weak demand, which was already weighing on German economic output in 2023. Inflation, which is falling in both Germany and the euro area overall, is expected to return close to the European Central Bank's two-percent target, suggesting that a turnaround in interest rates can be expected in early ...
2024| Timm Bönke, Guido Baldi, Hella Engerer, Pia Hüttl, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Frederik Kurcz, Violetta Kuzmova-Anand, Theresa Neef, Laura Pagenhardt, Werner Roeger, Marie Rullière, Jan-Christopher Scherer, Teresa Schildmann, Ruben Staffa, Kristin Trautmann
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Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 2023
Der Rückgang der Verwendung von Bargeld und das Aufkommen innovativer digitaler Zahlungssysteme haben die EZB wie viele andere Zentralbanken dazu veranlasst, die Einführung ihrer Währung in digitaler Form zu erwägen. Die technischen Probleme bei der Einführung eines digitalen Euro scheinen nicht unüberwindbar zu sein. Ein Thema, das jedoch weniger Beachtung gefunden hat, ist die Nachfrage nach einem ...
2023| Michael Frenkel
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Refereed essays Web of Science
The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We investigate the dollar’s role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a Bayesian proxy structural vector autoregressive model. We identify global risk shocks using high-frequency asset-price surprises around narratively selected events. Global risk shocks appreciate the dollar, induce tighter global ...
In:
Journal of Monetary Economics
144 (2024), 103549, 12 S.
| Georgios Georgiadis, Gernot J. Müller, Ben Schumann