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Externe referierte Aufsätze

Exchange Rates, Foreign Currency Exposure and Sovereign Risk

We quantify the causal link between exchange rate movements and sovereign risk of 16 major emerging market economies (EMEs) by means of structural vector autoregressive models (SVARs) and conditional on data from 10/2004 through 12/2016. We apply a novel data-based identification approach of the structural shocks that allows to account for the complex interrelations within the triad of exchange rates, ...

In: Journal of International Money and Finance 117 (2021), 102454 | Kerstin Bernoth, Helmut Herwatz
Externe referierte Aufsätze

The Dynamic Impact of FX Interventions on Financial Markets

Evidence on the effectiveness of foreign exchange (FX) interventions is either limited to short horizons or hampered by debatable identification. We address these limitations by identifying a structural vector autoregressive model for the daily frequency with an external instrument. Generally we find, for freely floating currencies, that FX intervention shocks significantly affect exchange rates and ...

In: The Review of Economics and Statistics 103 (2021), 5, S. 939–953 | Lukas Menkhoff, Malte Rieth, Tobias Stöhr
Diskussionspapiere 1993 / 2022

Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo

This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. It compiles a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. The main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ...

2022| Josefin Meyer, Carmen M. Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch
Diskussionspapiere 1990 / 2022

The Signalling Channel of Negative Interest Rates

Negative interest rates remain a controversial policy for central banks. We study a novel signalling channel and ask under what conditions negative rates should exist in an optimal policymaker’s toolkit. We prove two necessary conditions for the optimality of negative rates: a time-consistent policy setting and a preference for policy smoothing. These conditions allow negative rates to signal policy ...

2022| Oliver de Groot, Alexander Haas
Schumpeter BSE Macro Seminar


19.10.2021| Pascal Paul, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Schumpeter BSE Macro Seminar

How unconventional is green monetary policy?

02.11.2021| Monika Piazzesi, Stanford University
Schumpeter BSE Macro Seminar


09.11.2021| Morgan Kelly, Dublin
733 results, from 1