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Long-Term Employment Effects of the Minimum Wage in Germany: New Data and Estimators

We investigate the long-term effects of the introduction of the German minimum wage in 2015 and its subsequent increases on regional employment. Using comprehensive survey data, we are able to measure the regional bite of the minimum wage in 2014, just before its introduction, as well as in 2018, before it was raised substantially in several steps. The introduction mainly affected the labour market ...

Is There a Desired Added Worker Effect? Evidence from Involuntary Job Losses

While the existing evidence on added worker effects is mixed, most studies find no or only small effects. However, studies to date have mostly analyzed individuals’ actual labor supply responses to their partners’ job loss, neglecting to consider a potential mismatch between desired and actual labor supply adjustments. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we study individuals’ changes ...

Long-Term Gains of Graduating in a Recession for Low Educated Entrants

Economic conditions at time of labor market entry have been shown to have large negative effects on labor market outcomes for an extended period of time. The immediate effects have been shown to be worse for lower educated entrants. In the long run, the effects may be very different as low and high educated have different possibilities to accommodate this negative shock, high educated entrants can...

Regional Decline, Satisfaction with Democracy and Support for Right-Wing Populist Parties. Evidence from Germany (with Larissa Deppisch)

A consistent finding in research on the success of right-wing populist parties is that they gain support in regions that are peripheralized. In such regions, the decline of manufacturing jobs, public services, and infrastructure is thought to lead to growing frustration with democratic institutions and mainstream political parties, providing opportunities for right-wing populist parties to...

Artificial Intelligence and Workers’ Well-Being (with Osea Giuntella and Johannes König)

This study explores the relationship between artificial intelligence (AI) and workers’ wellbeing and mental health using longitudinal survey data from Germany (2000-2020). We construct a measure of individual exposure to AI technology based on the occupation in which workers in our sample were first employed and explore an event study design and a difference-in-differences approach to compare AI...

The Economic Burden of Burnout (with Arash Nekoei and Jósef Sigurdsson)

We study the economic consequences of stress-related occupational illnesses (burnout) using Swedish administrative data. Using a mover design, we find that high-burnout firms and stressful occupations universally raise burnout risk yet disproportionately impact low-stress-tolerance workers. Workers who burn out endure permanent earnings losses regardless of gender—while women are three times more...

Good care system reduces gender care gap

Policy Uncertainty, Misinformation and Statutory Retirement Age Reform

Aging societies put a strain on social security systems worldwide. Raising the statutory retirement age (SRA) is one of the most common tools that policymakers employ to respond to this pressure. We study the effect of policy reform on savings, labor supply, and welfare. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we estimate a structural life-cycle model. The model features subjective...

Why Do Migrants Stay Unexpectedly? Misperceptions and Implications for Integration

Empirical evidence suggests that the majority of immigrants who initially planned a temporary stay end up staying permanently in the host country. Since beliefs about the duration of stay are a strong determinant of integration, many long-term migrants may end up less than optimally integrated. We theoretically model migrants with potential misperceptions about their future utility and wage prospects ...

Short-time Work and Unemployment: Long-term effects on labor market outcomes

This study sheds light on the impact of different types of job retention programs such as short-time work (STW). We analyze the causal effect of an episode of STW on labor market outcomes up to five years later and compare this to the effects of sudden unemployment episodes. Using data from German Socio-Economic Panel (1992–2022), we employ an event-study approach to analyze the effect of...