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DIW Weekly Report 6 / 2024
Many sovereign defaults have occurred worldwide over the past 200 years. An analysis of 321 sovereign debt restructurings since 1815 shows that foreign private and institutional investor losses were 43 percent on average. Notably, beginning in the 1970s, several debt exchanges have increasingly been required to resolve a default. To understand this new phenomenon better, this Weekly Report looks at ...
2024| Josefin Meyer
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or “haircuts.” Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the statistical distribution has remained remarkably stable over two centuries, with an average haircut of around 45 ...
In:
IMF Economic Review
73 (2025), S. 150–195
| Clemens M. Graf von Luckner, Josefin Meyer, Carmen M. Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Theory suggests that corporate and sovereign bonds are fundamentally different, also because sovereign debt has no bankruptcy mechanism and is hard to enforce. We show empirically that the two assets are more similar than you think, at least when it comes to high-yield bonds over the past 20 years. We use rich new data to compare high-yield US corporate (“junk”) bonds to high-yield emerging market ...
In:
Journal of International Economics
155 (2025), 104082, 27 S.
| Gita Gopinath, Josefin Meyer, Carmen M. Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch
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Diskussionspapiere 2106 / 2025
We construct a narrative instrument for government investment from official records in Germany. Using structural vector autoregressions, we document a significant crowding-in of private investment and an output multiplier of roughly 2. Then, we match a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to the empirical responses, and we decompose the multiplier into three channels. Public investment ...
2025| Marius Clemens, Claus Michelsen, Malte Rieth
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Diskussionspapiere 2107 / 2025
The article documents the construction of a narrative instrument for government investment, used in the paper ‘An Estimation and Decomposition of the Government Investment Multiplier’.
2025| Marius Clemens, Claus Michelsen, Malte Rieth
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Diskussionspapiere 2097 / 2024
Theory suggests that corporate and sovereign bonds are fundamentally different, also because sovereign debt has no bankruptcy mechanism and is hard to enforce. We show empirically that the two assets are more similar than you think, at least when it comes to high-yield bonds over the past 20 years. Based on rich new data we compare risky US corporate bonds (“junk” bonds) to risky emerging market sovereign ...
2024| Gita Gopinath, Josefin Meyer, Carmen Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch
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Brown Bag Seminar Industrial Economics
Chapter 2 examines Germany's financial package, highlighting its potential to modernize public capital stock and stimulate economic recovery through expanded fiscal flexibility. The GCEE emphasizes that the package's effectiveness is contingent on its investment-oriented application and adherence to EU fiscal rules.
Chapter 3 addresses the significant burden of bureaucracy on German businesses....
02.07.2025| Thilo Kroeger, DIW Berlin
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This paper investigates the effects of survivor benefits (SB) on the labour supply of widows. Using richadministrative data on the Dutch population and a reform that considerably restricted eligibility to SB, weidentify the causal effect of SB on labour supply. Using a regression discontinuity design strategy based onthe cohort-based implementation of the reform, we show that labour income after spousal ...
In:
Labour Economics
88 (2024), 102527, 14 S.
| Simon Rabaté, Julie Tréguier
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Declining labor force participation of older men throughout the 20th century and recent increases in participation have generated substantial interest in understanding the effect of public pensions on retirement. The National Bureau of Economic Research's International Social Security (ISS) Project, a long-term collaboration among researchers in a dozen developed countries, has explored this and related ...
In:
Journal of Pension Economics and Finance
24 (2024), S. 8-30
| Courtney Coile, David Wise, Axel Börsch-Supan, Jonathan Gruber, Kevin Milligan, Richard Woodbury, Michael Baker, James Banks, Luc Behaghel, Melika Ben Salem, Paul Bingley, Didier Blanchet, Richard Blundell, Michele Boldrín, Antoine Bozio, Agar Brugiavini, Tabea Bucher-Koenen, Raluca Elena Buia, Eve Caroli, Thierry Debrand, Arnaud Dellis, Raphaël Desmet, Klaas de Vos, Peter Diamond, Carl Emmerson, Irene Ferrari, Anne-Lore Fraikin, Mayu Fujii, Pilar García-Gómez, Sílvia Garcia-Mandicó, Nicolas Goll, Nabanita Datta Gupta, Sergi Jiménez-Martín, Per Johansson, Paul Johnson, Michael Jørgensen, Alain Jousten, Hendrik Jürges, Malene Kallestrup-Lamb, Adriaan Kalwij, Arie Kapteyn, Simone Kohnz, Lisa Laun, Mathieu Lefebvre, Ronan Mahieu, Giovanni Mastrobuoni, Costas Meghir, Akiko Oishi, Takashi Oshio, Mårten Palme, Giacomo Pasini, Peder Pedersen, Louis-Paul Pelé, Franco Peracchi, Sergio Perelman, Pierre Pestieau, Corinne Prost, Simon Rabaté, Johannes Rausch, Muriel Roger, Tammy Schirle, Reinhold Schnabel, Morten Schuth, Satoshi Shimizutani, Sarah Smith, Jean-Philippe Stijns, David Sturrock, Ingemar Svensson, Gemma Tetlow, Lars Thiel, Maxime Tô, Julie Tréguier, Emiko Usuii, Judit Vall-Castelló, Emmanuelle Walraet, Guglielmo Weber, Naohiro Yashiro
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Externe Monographien
We study the impact of fossil fuel subsidy removal on presidential popularity using difference-indifference approaches and a stylized theoretical model. Analyzing macro level data for two subsidy removal events in Mexico and Bolivia in the early 2010s, we find evidence of a negative impact on presidential approval. Our theoretical probabilistic voting model predicts that the decline in popularity is ...
Washington D.C.:
IMF,
2024,
49 S.
(IMF Working Paper ; 24/230)
| Mariza Montes de Oca Léon, Achim Hagen, Franziska Holz