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  • DIW Weekly Report 6 / 2024

    200 Years of Sovereign Debt Crises: Serial Restructurings May Be Accompanied by Higher Creditor Losses

    Many sovereign defaults have occurred worldwide over the past 200 years. An analysis of 321 sovereign debt restructurings since 1815 shows that foreign private and institutional investor losses were 43 percent on average. Notably, beginning in the 1970s, several debt exchanges have increasingly been required to resolve a default. To understand this new phenomenon better, this Weekly Report looks at ...

    2024| Josefin Meyer
  • Blog Marcel Fratzscher

    Germany’s debt brake is breaking its economy

    The recent decision by the German Constitutional Court to block the government’s plan to redirect €60 billion in unused pandemic funds toward climate-related projects has underscored the growing divisions within Germany’s three-party ruling coalition. Moreover, the decision is set to undermine economic growth at a critical moment. Earlier this month, Germany’s Constitutional Court ruled that the government’s ...

    30.11.2023| Marcel Fratzscher
  • Diskussionspapiere 2042 / 2023

    When Credit Turns Political: Evidence from the Spanish Financial Crisis

    This paper provides causal evidence on the effect of credit crunches on political polarization. We combine data on bank-firm connections and electoral outcomes at the city-level during the 2008-2014 Spanish Financial Crisis. First, we show that firms in a relationship with weak banks experience a reduction in their loan supply and employment growth. Next, we estimate the effects of unemployment on ...

    2023| Pia Hüttl, Simon Baumgartner
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Labour Supply and Survivor Insurance in the Netherlands

    This paper investigates the effects of survivor benefits (SB) on the labour supply of widows. Using richadministrative data on the Dutch population and a reform that considerably restricted eligibility to SB, weidentify the causal effect of SB on labour supply. Using a regression discontinuity design strategy based onthe cohort-based implementation of the reform, we show that labour income after spousal ...

    In: Labour Economics 88 (2024), 102527, 14 S. | Simon Rabaté, Julie Tréguier
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Green Premiums Are a Challenge and an Opportunity for Climate Policy Design: Comment

    Adjusting green public support programmes to green premiums can reduce public spending, yet this is challenged by uncertainty. Underfunding green technologies can delay the green transition, and overfunding them can increase transition costs. Both risks of under- and overfunding can be reduced using responsive adjustments.

    In: Nature Climate Change 13 (2023), S. 592-595 | Till Köveker, Olga Chiappinelli, Mats Kröger, Oliver Lösch, Karsten Neuhoff, Jörn C. Richstein, Xi Sun
  • Event

    Managing Public Debt and Economic Challenges

    Join us for an insightful presentation on the global impact of COVID-19 on public debt and the challenges it poses for policymakers. This lecture explore the effectiveness of different approaches to reducing debt-to-GDP ratios, considering econometric analyses and historical experiences. Followed by a discussion. Key findings include: Fiscal consolidations: Timely and well-designed fiscal...

    14.06.2023| Asonuma Tamon, Josefin Meyer
  • Research Project

    EU Tax Observatory

    The EU Tax Observatory is an independent research laboratory hosted at the Paris School of Economics and DIW is the national cooperation partner.  It conducts innovative research on taxation, contributes to a democratic and inclusive debate on the future of taxation, and fosters a dialogue between the scientific community, civil society, and policymakers in the European Union and worldwide.

    Current Project| Macroeconomics, Forecasting and Economic Policy
  • Research Project

    Wealth policy instruments and wealth inequality

    Development of a dynamic framework to depict and compare the effects of wealth policy instruments in the short, medium, and long term. Among the examined instruments are a general wealth tax, a social inheritance, and a social dividend.

    Current Project| Macroeconomics, Forecasting and Economic Policy
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Long-Run Consequences of Informal Elderly Care and Implications of Public Long-Term Care Insurance

    We estimate a dynamic structural model of labor supply, retirement, and informal caregiving to study short and long-term costs of informal caregiving in Germany. Incorporating labor market frictions and the German tax and benefit system, we find that in the absence of Germany’s public long-term insurance scheme, informal elderly care has adverse and persistent effects on labor market outcomes and, ...

    In: Journal of Health Economics 96 (2024), 102884, 21 S. | Thorben Korfhage, Björn Fischer-Weckemann
  • Diskussionspapiere 2075 / 2024

    Financial Repression in General Equilibrium: The Case of the United States, 1948–1974

    Financial repression lowers the return on government debt and contributes, all else equal, towards its liquidation. However, its full effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio hinges on how repression impacts the economy at large because it alters investment and saving decisions. We develop and estimate a New Keynesian model with financial repression. Based on U.S. data for the period 1948–1974, we find, consistent ...

    2024| Martin Kliem, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Gernot J. Müller, Alexander Scheer
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