This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. Our main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ...
We investigate how internal distribution motives can interfere with the economic objectives of capital controls. In order to do this, we provide a model showing that elite capture can affect optimal debt repatriations and the management of official reserves under capital controls. Relying on these theoretical insights and a wealth of quantitative and qualitative historical evidence, we study one of ...
We estimate the dynamic effects of government spending shocks, using time-varying volatility in US data modeled through a Markov switching process. We find that the average government spending multiplier is significantly and persistently above one, driven by a crowding-in of private consumption and non-residential investment. We rationalize the results empirically through a contemporaneously countercyclical ...
After the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis, Catalonia is set to be the place of the most ambitious Universal Basic Income (UBI) pilot experiment in Europe to date. Up to 5,000 participants will be selected to receive for two years (2023-2024) an individual cash benefit of 800 EUR (300 EUR for minors), unconditionally. The Catalan pilot project will also test the...
May 2022 marked the 90th anniversary of the end of Heinrich Brüning’s term as Reich Chancellor. To this day, the economic effects of Brüning’s extreme austerity measures remain unclear. However, new data and calculations have made an initial quantification of the economic consequences of Brüning’s policies possible. An analysis based on a time series model illustrates how the Weimar Republic’s economy ...
Sovereign borrowers may tighten their fiscal stance in order to signal their creditworthiness to lenders. In a model of sovereign debt with incomplete information, I show that a trustworthy country may reduce its debt beyond the optimal level in order to separate itself from less reliable countries. Since austerity is costly, the gains in the price of debt from separating need to be high enough, as ...
Although economic growth continued to be lukewarm in 2021, tax revenue increased significantly, even exceeding the pre-crisis level despite economic policy measures associated with revenue losses. During the 2008-2011 global financial crisis, tax revenue followed a different path: Its recovery lagged behind economic recovery, first reaching the pre-crisis level in 2011. In 2021, value-added tax (VAT) ...
The current governance process to plan the German energy system omits two options to substitute grid expansion: First, placing renewables closer to demand instead of where site conditions are best. Second, utilizing storage instead of additional transmission infrastructure to prevent grid congestion. In the paper, we apply a comprehensive capacity expansion model based on the AnyMOD modeling framework ...