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Non-Additivity of Subjective Expectations over Different Time Intervals

We examine the additivity of stock-market expectations over different time intervals. When asked about a ten-year interval, survey respondents expect a stock-price change that is not equal to, but closer to zero than, the sum of their expectations over two shorter time intervals that cover the same ten years. Such sub-additivity is irrational in that it cannot stem from aggregating short-term expectations. ...

How Shocks Affect Stock Market Participation

While there is a broad consensus in the literature that stock ownership is associated with individual characteristics, such as wealth, income, risk preferences, and financial literacy, less is known about the dynamics of stock market participation (SMP). Major fluctuations in SMP are oftentimes related to political events, economic shocks, and technological disruptions. We discuss the literature that ...

Insolvency Regimes and Cross-Border Investment Decisions

This paper investigates the effect of insolvency regulation reforms on cross-border debt and equity investments at aggregate and sectoral levels. Using disaggregated data from the ECB’s Securities Holdings Statistics by Sector (SHSS) database and the OECD indicators on efficiency of insolvency regulations, we find that investors increase their debt and equity holdings in the countries that undertook ...

The Multifaceted Impact of US Trade Policy on Financial Markets

We study the multifaceted effects of trade policy shocks on financial markets using a structural vector autoregression identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously, but generally negatively. They increase market uncertainty, lower US interest rates, and lead to an appreciation of the US dollar. ...

Monetary Policy with Mispricing in Stock Markets

3rd annual Workshop for Women in Macroeconomics, Finance and Economic History

The 3rd annual Workshop for Women in Macroeconomics, Finance and Economic History is being organized by the German Institute for Economic Research. The aim is to bring together female academic researchers and practitioners to promote and exchange ideas in the fields of Macroeconomics, Finance, and Economic History.

What Goes around Comes around: How Large Are Spillbacks from US Monetary Policy?

Spillovers from US monetary policy entail spillbacks to the domestic economy. Applying counterfactual analyses in a Bayesian proxy structural vector-autoregressive model we find that spillbacks account for a non-trivial share of the slowdown in domestic real activity following a contractionary US monetary policy shock. Spillbacks materialise as a monetary policy tightening depresses foreign sales and ...

Dominant-Currency Pricing and the Global Output Spillovers from US Dollar Appreciation

We test for the empirical relevance of partial and asymmetric dominant-currency pricing (DCP), the hypothesis that large but not necessarily identical shares of economies’ export and import prices are sticky in US dollar. We first set up a structural three-country New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which nests DCP, producer-currency pricing and local-currency pricing. Under ...

Frugal fatalities? A narrative assessment of the cost of austerity

Foreign Currency Debt and Expectations