Negative interest rates remain a controversial policy for central banks. We study a novel signalling channel and ask under what conditions negative rates should exist in an optimal policymaker’s toolkit. We prove two necessary conditions for the optimality of negative rates: a time-consistent policy setting and a preference for policy smoothing. These conditions allow negative rates to signal policy ...
We use machine learning techniques to quantify trade tensions between the United States and China. Our measure matches well-known events in the US-China trade dispute and is exogenous to the developments on global financial markets. Local projections show that rising trade tensions leave US markets largely unaffected, except for firms that are more exposed to China, while negatively impacting stock ...
This paper exploits unique variation induced by two information treatments on a sample of German households in 2017 and 2018 to evaluate how subjective belief formation about stock market returns affects stock market participation and portfolio choice. I find that on average the information treatments do not shift individual expectations about returns significantly. Additionally, I show that...
Common ownership - when an investor holds shares in two or more companies - has recently attracted significant attention from policy-makers and researchers, studying mainly US firms. European firms, however, are different as top investors with large stakes, like governments, founding families and foundations are much more prevalent. This paper takes a well-known common ownership with micro-economic ...
The debate about making investments and the financial sector more sustainable often focuses on a narrow distinction between "green" and "brown" assets that does not match the situation in the real economy, writes Franziska Schütze from the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW). The sustainable finance expert says journalists need to read between the lines and make the many colours visible to ...
This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. It compiles a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. The main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ...