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Externe Monographien

Do Google Searches Help in Nowcasting Private Consumption? A Real-Time Evidence for the US

Zürich: KOF, 2010, 25 S.
(KOF Working Papers ; 256)
| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Maximilian Podstawski, Boriss Siliverstovs
Diskussionspapiere 1046 / 2010

Household Savings Decision and Income Uncertainty

This paper empirically investigates the effects of changes in the interest rate as well as transitory income uncertainty on households' consumption-savings decision. Applying a structural demand model to German survey data, we estimate the uncompensated interest rate elasticity for savings, in line with the literature, to around zero. Accordingly, any policy-induced variation of net returns to savings ...

2010| Martin Beznoska, Richard Ochmann
Diskussionspapiere 997 / 2010

Do Google Searches Help in Nowcasting Private Consumption? A Real-Time Evidence for the US

In this paper, we investigate whether the Google search activity can help in nowcasting the year-on-year growth rates of monthly US private consumption using a real-time data set. The Google-based forecasts are compared to those based on a benchmark AR(1) model and the models including the consumer surveys and financial indicators. According to the Diebold-Mariano test of equal predictive ability, ...

2010| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Maximilian Podstawski, Boriss Siliverstovs
SOEPpapers 254 / 2009

Accounting for Imputed and Capital Income Flows in Income Inequality Analyses

Using representative and consistent microdata from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) from 1985-2007, we illustrate that capital income (CI = return on financial investments) and imputed rent (IR = return on investments in owner-occupied housing) have become increasingly important sources of economic inequality in Germany over the last two decades. Whereas the operationalization of CI in ...

2009| Joachim R. Frick, Markus M. Grabka
SOEPpapers 240 / 2009

Precautionary and Entrepreneurial Saving: New Evidence from German Households

The well-documented positive correlation between income risk and wealth was interpreted as evidence for high amounts of precautionary wealth in various studies. However, the large estimates emerged from pooling non-entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs without controlling for heterogeneity. This paper provides evidence for Germany based on representative panel data including private wealth balance sheets. ...

2009| Frank M. Fossen, Davud Rostam-Afschar
SOEPpapers 239 / 2009

Triggers and Determinants of Severe Household Indebtedness in Germany

Overindebted private households have created economic and political concern. Using measures of relative (over-) indebtedness which relate household income and debt services to different concepts of subsistence levels, this paper investigates whether severe household indebtedness is driven by trigger events such as unemployment, childbirth, divorce, or the death of the partner. Exploiting the panel ...

2009| Matthias Keese
Diskussionspapiere 946 / 2009

Google Searches as a Means of Improving the Nowcasts of Key Macroeconomic Variables

The Google Insights data are a collection of recorded Internet searches for a huge number of the keywords, which are available since January 2004. These searches represent a kind of revealed perceptions of Internet users, which are a (possibly not entirely representative) sample of the general public. These data can be used to improve the short-term forecasts or nowcasts of various macroeconomic variables. ...

2009| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Maximilian Podstawski, Boriss Siliverstovs, Constantin Bürgi
SOEPpapers 48 / 2007

Germans in Germany's Ethnic Neighborhoods

In contrast to most research on the effects on residents of living in an ethnic neighborhood, this paper explores how living within an ethnic neighborhood affects members of the dominant ethnic group - in this case Germans - rather than the minorities that define it. The results indicate that Germans living within ethnic neighborhoods are less well off financially than their peers in other parts of ...

2007| Anita I. Drever
SOEPpapers 57 / 2007

Ethnic Identity and Immigrant Homeownership

Immigrants are much less likely to own their homes than natives, even after controlling for a broad range of life-cycle and socio-economic characteristics and housing market conditions. This paper extends the analysis of immigrant housing tenure choice by explicitly accounting for ethnic identity as a potential influence on the homeownership decision, using a two-dimensional model of ethnic identity ...

2007| Amelie Constant, Rowan Roberts, Klaus F. Zimmermann
291 results, from 241