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Diskussionspapiere 1360 / 2014
In this paper, we evaluate the forecasting ability of 115 indicators to predict the housing prices and rents in 71 German cities. Above all, we are interested in whether the local business confidence indicators can allow substantially improving the forecasts, given the local nature of the real-estate markets. The forecast accuracy of different predictors is tested in a framework of a quasi out-of-sample ...
2014| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Boriss Siliverstovs
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DIW Economic Bulletin 6 / 2013
When speculative price bubbles on real estate markets burst, the effects for the real economy are often devastating taking the form of substantial losses in production and employment. This paper discusses the degree to which institutional frameworks can prevent speculative bubbles from emerging and expanding. Comparing experiences in different countries indicates that, in Germany, institutional regulations ...
2013| Christian Dreger, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
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Refereed essays Web of Science
In this paper, the authors construct country-specific chronologies of the house price bubbles for 12 OECD countries over the period 1969:Q1-2009:Q4. These chronologies are obtained using a combination of a fundamental approach and a filter approach. The resulting speculative bubble chronology is the one which provides the highest concordance between these two techniques. In addition, the authors suggest ...
In:
Economics
7 (2013), 9, 26 S.
| Christian Dreger, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
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Externe Monographien
In this paper, the authors construct country-specific chronologies of house price bubbles for 12 OECD countries over the period 1969:Q12009:Q4. These chronologies are obtained using a combination of fundamental and filter approaches. The resulting speculative bubble chronology is the one providing the highest concordance between these two techniques. In addition, the authors suggest an early warning ...
Kiel:
IfW,
2012,
23 S.
(Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal : Discussion Papers ; 2012-44)
| Christian Dreger, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
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Refereed essays Web of Science
For many analysts, the Chinese economy is being spurred on by a bubble in the housing market, probably driven by the fiscal stimulus package and massive credit expansion, with potentially adverse effects on the real economy. The house price development is investigated by panel cointegration techniques. Evidence is based on a data-set for 35 major cities. Cointegration is detected between real house ...
In:
Urban Policy and Research
31 (2013), 1, S. 27-39
| Christian Dreger, Yanqun Zhang
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DIW Economic Bulletin 12 / 2012
Over the past few years, prices and rents for flats went up in most German cities. This trend is expected to continue in 2013. Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, and Frankfurt am Main will still see the highest increases in property prices and rents. In these cities, housing prices are rising much faster than rents. By contrast, stagnating or even falling prices are forecast for the cities in the Ruhr area. ...
2012| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Andreas Mense
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Externe Monographien
The Eurozone is still stuck in a downward spiral: high public and private debts weigh on potential growth; gloomy prospects for growth prevent the further reduction of these debts. A European plan to support growth should be a complement, and not a substitute, to the ongoing efforts to reduce public deficits. It should both encourage structural reforms and incentivize investments. In the short term, ...
Berlin:
CPI ; DIW,
2011,
20 S.
| Hermann Amecke, Karsten Neuhoff
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Externe Monographien
Conducting a building thermal efficiency retrofit (or further thermal retrofit) is a long and relatively complex decision-making process involving building owners, managers, residents/tenants, and construction industry professionals. A variety of information instruments exists to support participants at each stage of this process. This paper highlights the existing literature on information instruments ...
Berlin:
CPI ; DIW,
2011,
32 S.
(CPI Report)
| Aleksandra Novikova, Hermann Amecke, Karsten Neuhoff, Kateryna Stelmakh, Bernadett Kiss, Clemens Rohde, Elisa Dunkelberg, Julika Weiß, Kaisa Matschoss, Sarah Darby
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Diskussionspapiere 1207 / 2012
In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the monthly growth rates of the prices and rents for flats in 26 largest German cities. Given the small time dimension, the forecasts are done in a panel-data format. In addition, we use panel models that account for spatial dependence between the growth rates of housing prices and rents. Using a quasi out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that both ...
2012| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Andreas Mense
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Diskussionspapiere 1212 / 2012
In this paper, we construct a data set of Internet offer prices for flats in 48 large European cities from 24 countries. The data are collected in January - April 2012 from 33 websites, where the advertisements of flats for sale are placed. Using these data we investigate the determinants of the flat prices. Four factors are found to be relevant for the flats' price level: income per capita, population ...
2012| Konstantin A. Kholodilin