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  • Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 2001

    Trend and Cycle in the Euro-Area: A Permanent-Transitory Decomposition Using a Cointegrated VAR Model

    This paper investigates the Euro-area business cycle using a multivariate autoregressive time series model with cointegration. The cointegration restrictions help to identify permanent and transitory shocks which form the stochastic part of trend and cyclical GDP, respectively. The identification allows for a historical decomposition of Euro-area GDP into trend and cycle. Further, the relative importance ...

    2001| Christian Schumacher
  • Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 2001

    A New Indicator Based on Neftçi's Approach for Predicting Turning Points of the Euro-Zone Growth Cycle

    "[...] in many situations a decision does not have to be made immediately, but can be delayed until additional information has been acquired. Sequential analysis seems particularly applicable to the problem of predicting turning points in the business cycle" (Palash and Radecki, 1985). Elaborating on this idea, we propose a new approach to predict cyclical turning points in the Euro-zone using the ...

    2001| Jacques Anas, Muriel Nguiffo-Boyom
  • Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 2001

    Business Cycle Extraction of Euro-Zone GDP: Direct versus Indirect Approach

    Most of the Euro-zone economic short-term indicators are computed through aggregation from Member States data. The seasonally adjusted figures can be calculated by seasonally adjusting the aggregate (direct approach) or aggregating the seasonally adjusted national data (indirect approach). Statistical and practical considerations to choose the right strategy are given in the paper. An application to ...

    2001| Roberto Astolfi, Dominique Ladiray, Gian Luigi Mazzi
  • Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 2001

    Seasonal Adjustment Methods and the Determination of Turning Points of the EMU Business Cycle

    In this paper, we investigate the impact of the adjustment for seasonal effects with different seasonal adjustment methods, the possible pre-treatment for calendar effects and the different order of aggregation and adjustment for the determination of the turning points of the European business cycle. The European business cycle is represented first by the GDP series (referring to the classical definition ...

    2001| Kirsten Lommatzsch, Sabine Stephan
  • Diskussionspapiere 312 / 2002

    Structural Unemployment and the Output Gap in Germany: Evidence from an SVAR Analysis within a Hysteresis Framework

    The German unemployment rate shows strong signs if non-stationarity over the course of the previous decades. This is in line with an insider-outsider model under full hysteresis. We applied a "theory-guided view" to the data using the structural VAR model as developed by Balmaseda, Dolado and López-Salido (2000) allowing for full hysteresis on the labour market. Our identification of the model implies ...

    2002| Ulrich Fritsche, Camille Logeay
  • Diskussionspapiere 328 / 2003

    Trade, Technology and Labour Markets: Empirical Controversies in the Light of the Jones Model

    The deterioration of the income and employment position of unskilled workers in the OECD since the 1980s is a well-documented fact. The debate about the causes of this development is dominated by two competing hypotheses, "North-South Trade" ("globalisation") and technological progress. Several empirical methodologies have been used to identify and quantify the importance of these two explanations: ...

    2003| Michael Pflüger
  • Externe Monographien

    The Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Central and Eastern Europe: Myth or Reality?

    Ann Arbor, MI: The William Davidson Institute, 2002, 29 S.
    (William Davidson Working Paper ; 483)
    | Balázs Égert, Imed Drine, Kirsten Lommatzsch, Christophe Rault
  • Externe Monographien

    Implementing a Dynamic O-D Estimation Algorithm within the Microscopic Traffic Simulator Paramics

    Berkeley, CA: Institute of Transportation Studies, 2002, o. Pag.
    (California PATH Working Paper ; 2002-4)
    | Reinaldo C. Garcia
  • Externe Monographien

    EUROMOD: An Integrated European Benefit-Tax Model

    Cambridge: University of Cambridge, 2001, 113 S.
    (EUROMOD Working Paper Series ; EM9/01)
    | Holly Sutherland (Ed.), Hardy Hanappi, Michael Förster, Gert G. Wagner et al.
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Thresholds for Employment and Unemployment: A Spatial Analysis of German Regional Labour Markets, 1992-2000

    This paper applies Verdoorn's and Okun's law to derive efficient estimates of the employment and unemployment threshold in the Unified Germany. The analysis is built on a disaggregated dataset of regional labour markets, where spatial dependencies are taken into account. Especially, a spatial SUR model is proposed utilising the eigenfunction decomposition approach suggested by Griffith (1996, 2000). ...

    In: Papers in Regional Science 85 (2006), 4, S. 523-542 | Reinhold Kosfeld, Christian Dreger
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