Bayesian Procedures as a Numerical Tool for the Estimation of an Intertemporal Discrete Choice Model

Aufsätze referiert extern - Web of Science

Peter Haan, Daniel Kemptner, Arne Uhlendorff

In: Empirical Economics 49 (2015), 3, S. 1123-1141


Discrete choice models usually require a general specification of unobserved heterogeneity. In this paper, we apply Bayesian procedures as a numerical tool for the estimation of a female labor supply model based on a sample size that is typical for common household panels. We provide two important results for the practitioner: First, for a specification with a multivariate normal distribution for the unobserved heterogeneity, the Bayesian MCMC estimator yields almost identical results as a classical maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) estimator. Second, we show that when imposing distributional assumptions that are consistent with economic theory, e.g., log-normally distributed consumption preferences, the Bayesian method performs well and provides reasonable estimates, while the MSL estimator does not converge. These results indicate that Bayesian procedures can be a beneficial tool for the estimation of intertemporal discrete choice models.

Daniel Kemptner

Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter in der Abteilung Bildung und Familie

Peter Haan

Abteilungsleiter in der Abteilung Staat

JEL-Classification: C11;C25;J22
Keywords: Bayesian estimation, Discrete choice models, Intertemporal labor supply behavior