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Events of DIW Berlin

1 February 2017

DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets Daily Currency Interventions in Emerging Markets: Incorporating Reserve Accumulation to the Reaction Function

This study considers emerging market central bank interventions motivated by international reserve management. Emerging market central banks use currency intervention as a policy tool against exchange rate movements and accumulate international reserves as an insurance against sudden stops or reversals in capital flows. To account for both of these motivations, the model of Ito and Yabu (2007), which is exclusively based on exchange rate targeting, is extended to include the international reserves-to-GDP ratio at a daily frequency. Daily values of the ratio are forecast using the Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) model and exchange rate returns. Compared with the benchmark model, we find that the MIDAS model performs better in forecasting the reserve-to-GDP ratio. The extended model is estimated by using the floating exchange rate regime period data of Turkey. We identify breaks in the Turkish intervention policy, and the reserve-to-GDP variable in the extended model is found to have a significant role in the intervention reaction function.

Michael Frömmel's CV

More Information
  • Michael Frömmel, Ghent University

  • Location
    Gustav-Schmoller-Raum DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 3.3.002A Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 439