German Economy Remaining Strong Amidst Uncertainties: DIW Economic Outlook

DIW Weekly Report 11/12 / 2019, S. 102-105

Claus Michelsen, Martin Bruns, Marius Clemens, Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Konstantin Kholodilin, Thore Schlaak

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Abstract

Although the economic boom in Germany is over, a recession is not looming. The economy is still expected to grow by 1.0 percent this year despite its recent weaker performance. Consumption remains a mainstay of the economy; the average annual increase in the number of employees is likely to be just under half a million. At 1.5 percent, inflation is barely dampening purchasing power and together with fiscal policy stimuli, it will lead to a noticeable increase in private consumption. Foreign demand, on the other hand, is developing moderately due to China’s weakening economy and the fact that the industrial sector is losing momentum in many important export markets. The enormous political risks will dampen corporate investment as well.

Max Hanisch

Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter in der Abteilung Weltwirtschaft

Marius Clemens

Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter in der Abteilung Konjunkturpolitik

Martin Johannes Bruns

Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter in der Abteilung Konjunkturpolitik

Thore Schlaak

Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter in der Abteilung Konjunkturpolitik

Claus Michelsen

Abteilungsleiter in der Abteilung Konjunkturpolitik

Simon Junker

Stellvertretender Abteilungsleiter in der Abteilung Konjunkturpolitik

Konstantin A. Kholodilin

Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter in der Abteilung Makroökonomie

Themen: Konjunktur



JEL-Classification: E32;E66;F01
Keywords: Business cycle forecast, ecoomic outlook
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18723/diw_dwr:2019-11-3