On the Exposure of the Bric Countries to Global Economic Shocks

Aufsätze referiert extern - Web of Science 1 / 2019

Ansgar Belke, Christian Dreger, Irina Dubova

In: The World Economy 42 (2019), 1, S. 122-142

Abstract

The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly, their performance deteriorated in recent years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of business cycles is closely linked to the Chinese economy. During the crisis, the Chinese fiscal stimulus prevented an abrupt decline in GDP growth not only in that country, but also in resource‐rich economies. Due to lower commodity demand, the environment became more challenging for many emerging markets in recent years. This view is supported by Bayesian structural VARs specified for the individual BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries. The results reveal a strong impact of the international economy on GDP growth. However, in contrast to the other countries, China plays a crucial role in determining global trade and oil prices. Therefore, the Chinese economy exerts significant spillovers to the other countries under analysis. The change in the Chinese growth strategy puts additional reform pressure especially in countries with abundant natural resources.

Christian Dreger

Forschungsdirektor in der Abteilung Makroökonomie



Keywords: Bayesian VARs, business cycle divergence, Chinese transformation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12674