Veranstaltungen

Konjunktur, Wachstum, Wirtschaftsstruktur
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10. Juli 2019

DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets TBA

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  • Dirk Baur, The University of Western Australia

  • Zeit
    12:00-13:15
    Ort
    Joan Robinson Room DIW Berlin Raum 3.3.002a Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
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    im DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 486
    3. Juli 2019

    DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets TBA

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  • Cédric Tille, Graduate Institute for International and Development Studies

  • Zeit
    12:00-13:15
    Ort
    Joan Robinson Room DIW Berlin Raum 3.3.002a Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
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    im DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 486
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 439
    26. Juni 2019

    DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets TBA

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  • Mathias Hoffmann, University of Zurich

  • Zeit
    12:00-13:15
    Ort
    Joan Robinson Room DIW Berlin Raum 3.3.002a Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
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    im DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 486
    19. Juni 2019

    DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets TBA

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  • Raffaella Giacomini, University College London

  • Zeit
    12:00-13:15
    Ort
    Joan Robinson Room DIW Berlin Raum 3.3.002a Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
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    im DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 486
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 409
    12. Juni 2019

    DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets Fiscal Policy under Constraints: Fiscal Capacity and Austerity during the Great Depression

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  • Andrea Papadia, European University Institute

  • Zeit
    12:00-13:15
    Ort
    Joan Robinson Room DIW Berlin Raum 3.3.002a Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
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    im DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 486
    12. Juni 2019

    DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets Fiscal Policy under Constraints: Fiscal Capacity and Austerity during the Great Depression

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  • Andrea Papadia, European University Institute

  • Zeit
    12:00-13:15
    Ort
    Joan Robinson Room DIW Berlin Raum 3.3.002a Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
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    im DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 486
    5. Juni 2019

    DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets TBA

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  • Marek Jarocinski, European Central Bank

  • Zeit
    12:00-13:15
    Ort
    Joan Robinson Room DIW Berlin Raum 3.3.002a Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
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    im DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 486
    22. Mai 2019

    DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets European unemployment insurance

    The paper explores the scope for a federal unemployment insurance scheme in the euro area. It models a union of atomistic member states that have authority over a wide range of domestic labor-market policies. Member states are faced with idiosyncratic business-cycle shocks, but are prevented from international borrowing.
    Labor-market frictions and wage rigidities mean that business cycles are inecient. Federal UI transfers are nanced through a lump-sum tax on member states. For xed local labor-market policies, optimal federal unemployment-based transfers provide full insurance against regional shocks, and smooth the business cycle. If member states can adjust labor-market policies in response, however, optimal federal UI is much less generous, rendering federal UI ineective. Indexation of payouts to past unemployment rates does not address the dynamic incentives to freeride. Federaltransfers can be eective if more political authority is transferred to the federal level: either authority over labor-market policies, or if the federal UI system is structured like an enforceable loan.

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  • Prof. Dr. Philip Jung, Technische Universität Dortmund

  • Zeit
    12:00-13:15
    Ort
    Joan Robinson Room DIW Berlin Raum 3.3.002a Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
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    22. Mai 2019

    DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets TBA

    Prof. Dr. Philip Jung, Technische Universität Dortmund

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    Zeit
    12:00-13:15
    Ort
    Joan Robinson Room DIW Berlin Raum 3.3.002a Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
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    im DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 486
    15. Mai 2019

    DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets Ambiguity Attitudes about investments: Evidence from the field

    Using an incentivized survey and a representative sample of investors, we elicit ambiguity attitudes toward a familiar company stock, a local stock index, a foreign stock index, and a crypto currency. We separately estimate ambiguity aversion (ambiguity preferences) and perceived ambiguity levels (perceptions about ambiguity), while controlling for unknown likelihood beliefs. We show that ambiguity aversion is highly correlated across different assets and can be summarized by a single underlying factor. By contrast, individuals’ perceived ambiguity levels differ depending on the type of asset and cannot be summarized by a single underlying factor. Perceived ambiguity is mitigated by financial literacy and education, while the preference component is correlated with risk aversion. Perceived ambiguity proves to be related to actual investment choices, validating our measure. Finally, our results imply that policies enhancing financial literacy and knowledge of financial markets can help stimulate equity market participation and reduce inequality, as these reduce peoples’ perceived levels of ambiguity about financial assets.

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  • Roy Kouwenberg, Mahidol University, Bangkok

  • Zeit
    12:00-13:15
    Ort
    Joan Robinson Room DIW Berlin Raum 3.3.002a Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
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    Tel.: +49 30 89789 486
    11. April 2019

    Veranstaltung Austerity: When It Works and When It Doesn´t
    Book Presentation by Francesco Giavazzi

    A timely and incisive look at austerity measures that succeed—and those that don’t. Fiscal austerity is hugely controversial. Opponents argue that it can trigger downward growth spirals and become self-defeating. Supporters argue that budget deficits have to be tackled aggressively at all times and at all costs. In this masterful book, three of today’s leading experts – Alberto Alesina, Carlo Favero and Francesco Giavazzi – cut through the political noise to demonstrate that there is not one type of austerity but many.

    Moderation
    Marcel Fratzscher | DIW Berlin

    Francesco Giavazzi is Professor of Economics at Bocconi University.
    Marcel Fratzscher is Professor of Macroeconomics and Finance at Humboldt-University Berlin, and President of DIW Berlin.

    We hope that you will be able to join us, and look forward to your participation. To participate, we kindly ask you to register by emailing events@diw.de

    Zeit
    12.30 to 2.00 p.m.

    Ort
    Elinor-Ostrom-Saal DIW Berlin Raum 1.2.019 Mohrenstr. 58 10117 Berlin
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    im DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 569
    10. April 2019

    DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets Reforms and the Real Exchange Rate: The Role of Pricing-to-Market

    The paper investigates how endogenous markups affect the extent to which policy reforms can inuence international competitiveness. In a two-country model where trade costs allow for international market segmentation, we show that endogenous pricing-to-market behavior offirms acts as an important transmission channel of the policies. By strengthening the degree of competition between rms, product market deregulation at home leads to a reduction in domestic markups, which generally leads to an improvement in the international competitiveness of the Home country. Conversely, the power of competitive tax policy to depreciate the real exchange rate is dampened, as domestic firms take the opportunity of the labor tax cut to increase their markups. The variability of markups also affects the normative implications of the reforms. This indicates the importance of taking into account endogenous pricing-to-market behavior when intending to correctly evaluate the overall effects of the reforms.

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  • Celine Poilly, University of Aix-Marseille, France

  • Zeit
    12:00-13:15
    Ort
    Joan Robinson Room DIW Berlin Raum 3.3.002a Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
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    im DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 486
    27. März 2019

    Veranstaltung Präsentation des Finanzstabilitätsberichts der Bundesbank

    Wir bitten um Anmeldung per Mail an: akegel@diw.de

    Referent/-in
  • Tim Oliver Berg, Deutsche Bundesbank

    Moderation: Lukas Menkhoff, DIW Berlin

  • Zeit
    11:30 bis 12:45
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    im DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 590
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 407
    31. Januar 2019

    Berlin Lunchtime Meeting Investment, technological change and skills: Germany and the EU

    Growing downside risks to the economic outlook, together with well-known structural weaknesses, make still more pressing the need for strong reflection on European policy priorities. How can we improve productivity and competitiveness in the EU and in Germany? Is current investment adequate given crisis legacies and the challenges lying ahead? What strategies are needed to foster innovation as a driver of long-term growth, and to master new challenges arising from digital transformation?

    The event will debate challenges for Europe and Germany with regard to technological transformation, skills and financing. It will present findings from the recent EIB Investment Report ”Retooling Europe’s economy”, a comprehensive analysis of investment trends and drivers. This draws on new results from the EIB Investment Survey, a unique datasource providing insights on corporate investment activity for Germany and the EU. The presentation will also cover an in-depth study of innovation, investment in intangible assets and digitalisation as drivers of productivity growth.

    Debora Revoltella | European Investment Bank

    Comment: Klaus Guenter Deutsch | BDI – Federation of German Industries
    Comment: Florian Moritz | DGB - German Trade Union Confederation

    Moderation: Heino von Meyer | OECD Berlin Centre

    Thursday, 31 January 2019
    Elinor Ostrom Hall, 1st floor, Mohrenstr. 58, 10117 Berlin

    Lunch: 12h00
    Presentation: 12h45

    The event language will be English.

    Registration by email to: We look forward to seeing you there.


    Zeit
    12:00 - 14:00 Uhr
    Ort
    Elinor Ostrom Hall Raum 1.2.019 Mohrenstr. 58 10117 Berlin
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    Tel.: +49 30 89789 181
    23. Januar 2019

    DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets Monetary Policy Spillovers, Capital Controls and Exchange Rate Regimes, and the Financial Channel of Exchange Rates

    We assess the empirical validity of the trilemma (or impossible trinity) in the 2000s for a large sample of advanced and emerging economies. To do so, we estimate Taylor-rule type monetary policy reaction functions, relating the local policy rate to real-time forecasts of domestic fundamentals, global variables, as well as the base-country policy rate. In the regressions, we explore variations in the sensitivity of local to base-country policy rates across different degrees of exchange rate flexibility and capital controls. We find that the data are in general consistent with the predictions from the trilemma: Both exchange rate flexibility and capital controls reduce the sensitivity of local to base-country policy rates. However, we also find that the financial channel of exchange rates highlighted in recent work reduces the extent to which local policymakers decide to exploit the monetary autonomy in principle granted by flexible exchange rates in specific circumstances: The sensitivity of local to base-country policy rates for an economy with a flexible exchange rate is stronger when it exhibits negative foreign-currency exposures which stem from portfolio debt and bank liabilities on its external balance sheet and when base-country monetary policy is tightened. The intuition underlying this finding is that it may be optimal for local monetary policy to mimic the tightening of base-country monetary policy and thereby mute exchange rate adjustments because a depreciation of the local currency would raise the cost of servicing and rolling over foreign-currency debt and bank loans, possibly up to a point at which financial stability is put at risk.

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  • Georgios Georgiadis, European Central Bank

  • Zeit
    12:00-13:15
    Ort
    Joan Robinson Room DIW Berlin Raum 3.3.002a Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
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    im DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 486
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 409
    16. Januar 2019

    DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets "News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities"

    We investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households. Using a novel news-topic-based approach we show that the news types the media choose to report on are good predictors of households' stated ination expectations. In turn, in a noisy information model setting, augmented with a simple media channel, we show that the underlying time series properties of relevant news topics explain the time-varying information rigidity among households. As such, we not only provide a new estimate on the degree of time variation in households' information rigidity, but also provide, using a large news corpus and machine learning algorithms, robust and new evidence highlighting the role of the media for understanding ination expectations and information rigidities.

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  • Leif Anders Thorsrud, Norges Bank

  • Zeit
    12:00-13:15
    Ort
    Joan Robinson Room DIW Berlin Raum 3.3.002a Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
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    im DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 486
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 409
    19. Dez 2018

    DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets Currency Manipulation

    We propose a novel, risk-based transmission mechanism for the effects of currency manipulation: policies that systematically induce a country's currency to appreciate in bad times lower its risk premium in international markets and, as a result, lower the country's risk-free interest rate and increase domestic capital accumulation and wages. Currency manipulations by large countries also have external effects on foreign interest rates and capital accumulation. Applying this logic to policies that lower the variance of the bilateral exchange rate relative to some target country ("currency stabilization"), we find that a small economy stabilizing its exchange rate relative to a large economy increases domestic capital accumulation and wages. The size of this effect increases with the size of the target economy, offering a potential explanation why the vast majority of currency stabilizations in the data are to the U.S. dollar, the currency of the largest economy in the world. A large economy (such as China) stabilizing its exchange rate relative to a larger economy (such as the U.S.) diverts capital accumulation from the target country to itself, increasing domestic wages, while decreasing wages in the target country.

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  • Tarek Hassan, Boston University

  • Zeit
    12:00-13:15
    Ort
    Joan Robinson Room DIW Berlin Raum 3.3.002a Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
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    im DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 486
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 409
    12. Dez 2018

    DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets

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  • Raffaella Giacomini, University College London

    !!Seminar shifted to June 2019!!

  • Zeit
    12:00-13:15
    Ort
    Joan Robinson Room DIW Berlin Raum 3.3.002a Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Ansprechpartner/-in
    im DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 486
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 409
    14. Nov 2018

    DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets Bayesian Structural VAR models: a new approach for prior beliefs on impulse responses

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  • Michele Piffer, Queen Mary University of London

  • Zeit
    15:00-16:00
    Ort
    Joan Robinson Room DIW Berlin Raum 3.3.002a Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
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    im DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 486
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 409
    24. Oktober 2018

    DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets When and Why Can Forward Guidance De-anchor Expectations? (with Gaetano Gaballo, Peter Hoffmann and Georg Strasser)

    The form of forward guidance matters for its effectiveness in anchoring expectations about the future path of policy rates. We report cross-country evidence about the impact of different types of forward guidance on the reactiveness of markets to macroeconomic news and on disagreement across forecasters, and show that timecontingent forward guidance over a short horizon and open-ended forward guidance are ineffective at best, and add uncertainty about the policy path at worst. Time-contingent forward guidance over long horizons makes asset prices entirely unresponsive to incoming news, and eliminates all disagreement across forecasters, whereas state-contingent forward guidance preserves some responsiveness and some disagreement. We also show that in the presence of asset purchases, forward guidance anchors expectations more effectively. We rationalize our findings with a rational expectations model with noisy market information, where the precision of the market signal depends on how strongly agents respond to their own private information, which becomes less relevant after forward guidance.

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  • Michael Ehrmann, European Central Bank

  • Zeit
    12:00-13:15
    Ort
    Joan Robinson Room DIW Berlin Raum 3.3.002a Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Ansprechpartner/-in
    im DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 486
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 409
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