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DIW Economic Bulletin 7 / 2016

ECB Asset Purchases May Affect Wealth Distribution

In the debate on monetary policy decisions, to date, little attention has been paid to distributional effects. One reason for this is that they are not included in the mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB). Given the loose monetary policy stance in the euro area and the large-scale program to purchase government and corporate bonds launched in January 2015, the question increasingly being asked ...

2016| Kerstin Bernoth, Philipp König, Benjamin Beckers
DIW Roundup 109 / 2017

The Natural Rate of Interest II: Empirical Overview

The concept of the natural rate of interest (NRI) dates back to Wicksell (1898) and has since then been highly debated in the economic literature. In practice, estimates of the NRI can be employed as a versatile tool for macroeconomic analysis and are a core element within the popular neo-Wicksellian (or New-Keynesian) framework. The real rate gap, i.e. the difference between the actual interest rate ...

2017| Dmitry Chervyakov, Philipp König
DIW Roundup 108 / 2017

The Natural Rate of Interest I: Theory

The term natural (or neutral) real interest rate refers to the equilibrium value of the real interest rate. As this equilibrium is usually conceived as a situation where inflationary or deflationary pressures have abated, the natural real interest rate is a key concept for central banks seeking to stabilize the general price level or targeting the rate of inflation. The present roundup provides a brief ...

2017| Philipp König, Dmitry Chervyakov
Diskussionspapiere 1596 / 2016

Unconventional Monetary Policy, Fiscal Side Effects and Euro Area (Im)balances

We study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area using structural vector autoregressions, identified with an external instrument. The instrument is the common unexpected variation in euro area sovereign spreads for different maturities on policy announcement days. We first show that expansionary monetary surprises are effective at lowering public and private interest ...

2016| Michael Hachula, Michele Piffer, Malte Rieth

Expansive monetary policy: Early exit from bond purchase program could reduce GDP growth and inflation in the euro area

The following study from DIW Berlin examines the effects of different exit scenarios from the European Central bank’s bond purchase program on the European economy – exiting early would especially depress the inflation rate What if the ECB were to reduce its bond purchase program by more than what it reported at the end of October? What if it reduced its bond holdings quicker or earlier? ...


Expansive Geldpolitik der EZB: Frühzeitiger Ausstieg dürfte Wachstum und Inflation bremsen

DIW-Studie untersucht Effekte verschiedener Ausstiegsszenarien aus EZB-Anleihekaufprogramm auf europäische Wirtschaft – Frühzeitiger Abbau würde vor allem auf Inflationsrate drücken Was wäre, wenn die EZB ihr Anleihekaufprogramm noch stärker als Ende Oktober angekündigt reduziert oder den Bestand schneller oder frühzeitiger abbaut? Welche Auswirkungen ...

DIW Roundup 107 / 2017

The Inflation Targeting Debate

Inflation targeting has become one of the most prominent monetary regimes around the globe. Proponents argue that it reduces the dynamic inconsistency problem of monetary policy and thereby stabilises prices, which in turn promotes growth. Opponents, on the other hand, say that by focusing on price stability inflation targeting neglects other important policy objectives, such as financial stability, ...

2017| Malte Rieth
DIW Roundup 95 / 2016

The Dilemma or Trilemma Debate: Empirical Evidence

One of the central results in international economics is that an economy cannot have at the same time independent monetary policy, free capital flows, and a fixed exchange rate. Over the last few years, however, this so-called Mundell-Flemming ‘trilemma’ has increasingly been challenged. It is argued that given the rising importance and synchronization of capital and credit flows across countries and ...

2016| Pablo Anaya, Michael Hachula
DIW Berlin - Politikberatung kompakt 113 / 2016

Effectiveness of the ECB Programme of Asset Purchases: Where Do We Stand? In-Depth Analysis

2016| Kerstin Bernoth, Michael Hachula, Michele Piffer, Malte Rieth
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