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Diskussionspapiere 1138 / 2011

Employment Growth, Inflation and Output Growth: Was Phillips Right? Evidence from a Dynamic Panel

In this paper we analyse the short- and long-run relationship between employment growth, inflation and output growth in Phillips' tradition. For this purpose we apply FMOLS, DOLS, PMGE, MGE, DFE, and VECM methods to a nonstationary heterogeneous dynamic panel including annual data for 119 countries over the period 1970-2010, and also carry out multivariate Granger causality tests. The empirical results ...

2011| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Marinko Skare
DIW Wochenbericht 22 / 2011

Sparer reagieren kaum auf Zinsänderungen

Wie reagieren private Haushalte auf eine Veränderung der Verbraucherpreise oder des Zinsniveaus? Reduzieren sie gegenwärtigen Konsum und sparen stattdessen für die Zukunft, wenn Preise oder Zinssätze steigen? Oder lassen sie ihren einmal gewählten Konsumpfad unverändert? Nur wer die Antworten auf diese Fragen kennt, kann steuer- und sozialpolitische Reformen wie die Einführung einer Abgeltungsteuer, ...

2011| Martin Beznoska, Richard Ochmann
Diskussionspapiere 1114 / 2011

The Euro Changeover and Price Adjustments in Italy

By estimating a staggered price model over the period 1980q1-2010q2, this paper documents that, after the euro changeover, Italian retailers have increased the number of price adjustments, which has translated into a higher inflation rate, with a detrimental effect on the competitiveness of the Italian economy.

2011| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Alessandro Girardi, Marco Ventura
Diskussionspapiere 1106 / 2011

Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area: Catching up or Competitiveness?

In the debate on global imbalances, the euro area countries did not receive much attention so far. While the current account is on balance for the entire area, divergences between individual member states have increased since the introduction of the common currency. In this paper, the imbalances are traced to catching up and competitiveness factors using paneleconometric techniques. In line with the ...

2011| Ansgar Belke, Christian Dreger
Monographien

Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area: Catching up or Competitiveness?

Essen: RWI, 2011, 23 S.
(Ruhr Economic Papers ; 241)
| Ansgar Belke, Christian Dreger
Diskussionspapiere 1064 / 2010

Money Demand and the Role of Monetary Indicators in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation

This paper examines the forecasting performance of a broad monetary aggregate (M3) in predicting euro area inflation. Excess liquidity is measured as the difference between the actual money stock and its fundamental value, the latter determined by a money demand function. The out-of sample forecasting performance is compared to widely used alternatives, such as the term structure of interest rates. ...

2010| Christian Dreger, Jürgen Wolters
Weitere Aufsätze

Monetary Policy Challenges of the ECB Facing a Divergent Inflationary Process in the EMU Area

In: Giuseppe Fontana, John McCombie, Malcolm Sawyer (Eds.) , Macroeconomics, Finance and Money
Basingstoke : Palgrave Macmillan
S. 54-74
| Georg Erber, Harald Hagemann
Diskussionspapiere 996 / 2010

How Much Fiscal Backing Must the ECB Have? The Euro Area Is Not the Philippines

The ECB has accepted increasing amounts of rubbish collateral since the crisis started leading to exposure to serious private sector credit risk (i.e. default risk) on its collateralised lending and reverse operations ("repo"). This has led some commentators to argue that the ECB needs "fiscal back-up" to cover any potential losses to be able to continue pursuing price stability. This Brief argues ...

2010| Ansgar Belke
Diskussionspapiere 973 / 2010

Global Liquidity, World Savings Glut and Global Policy Coordination

The global imbalances of the 2000s and the recent global financial crisis are intimately connected. Both originate in the combination of economic policies adopted by the two key economies, the US and China. Global financial markets served as a transmission belt, both during the boom as during the bust. In the US, the interaction among the Fed's monetary stance, global real interest rates, distorted ...

2010| Ansgar Belke, Daniel Gros
Diskussionspapiere 981 / 2010

Fractional Cointegration in US Term Spreads

This note examines the stochastic properties of US term spreads with parametric and semi-parametric fractional integration techniques. Since the observed data (rather than the estimated residuals from a cointegrating regression) are used for the analysis, standard methods can be applied. The results indicate that US Treasury maturity rates are I(1) in most cases, although the order of integration decreases ...

2010| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis A. Gil-Alana
970 Ergebnisse, ab 881