1818 Ergebnisse, ab 1681
Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 2001

Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods

Der Aufsatz untersucht einige populäre Methoden zur Messung des Output-Gaps auf der Basis von aggregierten Daten für die Euro-Zone. Obwohl die Methoden einige wichtige gemeinsame Eigenschaften aufweisen, zeigen auch sie erhebliche Unterschiede, insbesondere ist die Korrelation zwischen Output-Gap-Schätzungen auf Basis verschiedener Methoden niedrig, die Ansätze implizieren differierende Wendepunkte, ...

2001| Odile Chagny, Jörg Döpke
Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 2001

Is There a Common European Business Cycle? New Insights from a Frequency Domain Analysis

Um die Synchronität der Konjunkturzyklen in Europa zu bewerten, wird die Zykluskomponente der Industrieproduktion in fünf europäischen Ländern identifiziert, indem der Baxter-King-Filter (1999) angewendet wird. Die Hypothese eines gemeinsamen Konjunkturzyklus wird durch einen Test auf einen gemeinsamen Zyklus im Frequenzbereich nach Breitung und Candelon (2000) überprüft. Ein gemeinsamer Konjunkturzyklus ...

2001| Jörg Breitung, Bertrand Candelon
Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 2001

Markov-Switching Procedures for Dating the Euro-Zone Business Cycle

Zur Identifikation und Datierung des Konjunkturzyklus in der Eurozone wird der von Hamilton zur Analyse des US-Konjunkturzyklus vorgeschlagene Markov-Regimewechselansatz auf vierteljährliche aggregierte und länderspezifische Zeitreihen des realen Bruttoinlandsproduktwachstums der zwei letzten Jahrzehnte angewandt. Mit den statistisch kongruenten und ökonomisch sinnvollen Modellen werden Regimewechsel ...

2001| Hans-Martin Krolzig
Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 2001

Trend and Cycle in the Euro-Area: A Permanent-Transitory Decomposition Using a Cointegrated VAR Model

This paper investigates the Euro-area business cycle using a multivariate autoregressive time series model with cointegration. The cointegration restrictions help to identify permanent and transitory shocks which form the stochastic part of trend and cyclical GDP, respectively. The identification allows for a historical decomposition of Euro-area GDP into trend and cycle. Further, the relative importance ...

2001| Christian Schumacher
Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 2001

A New Indicator Based on Neftçi's Approach for Predicting Turning Points of the Euro-Zone Growth Cycle

"[...] in many situations a decision does not have to be made immediately, but can be delayed until additional information has been acquired. Sequential analysis seems particularly applicable to the problem of predicting turning points in the business cycle" (Palash and Radecki, 1985). Elaborating on this idea, we propose a new approach to predict cyclical turning points in the Euro-zone using the ...

2001| Jacques Anas, Muriel Nguiffo-Boyom
Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 2001

Business Cycle Extraction of Euro-Zone GDP: Direct versus Indirect Approach

Most of the Euro-zone economic short-term indicators are computed through aggregation from Member States data. The seasonally adjusted figures can be calculated by seasonally adjusting the aggregate (direct approach) or aggregating the seasonally adjusted national data (indirect approach). Statistical and practical considerations to choose the right strategy are given in the paper. An application to ...

2001| Roberto Astolfi, Dominique Ladiray, Gian Luigi Mazzi
Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 2001

Seasonal Adjustment Methods and the Determination of Turning Points of the EMU Business Cycle

In this paper, we investigate the impact of the adjustment for seasonal effects with different seasonal adjustment methods, the possible pre-treatment for calendar effects and the different order of aggregation and adjustment for the determination of the turning points of the European business cycle. The European business cycle is represented first by the GDP series (referring to the classical definition ...

2001| Kirsten Lommatzsch, Sabine Stephan
Diskussionspapiere 328 / 2003

Trade, Technology and Labour Markets: Empirical Controversies in the Light of the Jones Model

The deterioration of the income and employment position of unskilled workers in the OECD since the 1980s is a well-documented fact. The debate about the causes of this development is dominated by two competing hypotheses, "North-South Trade" ("globalisation") and technological progress. Several empirical methodologies have been used to identify and quantify the importance of these two explanations: ...

2003| Michael Pflüger
Diskussionspapiere 312 / 2002

Structural Unemployment and the Output Gap in Germany: Evidence from an SVAR Analysis within a Hysteresis Framework

The German unemployment rate shows strong signs if non-stationarity over the course of the previous decades. This is in line with an insider-outsider model under full hysteresis. We applied a "theory-guided view" to the data using the structural VAR model as developed by Balmaseda, Dolado and López-Salido (2000) allowing for full hysteresis on the labour market. Our identification of the model implies ...

2002| Ulrich Fritsche, Camille Logeay

The Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Central and Eastern Europe: Myth or Reality?

Ann Arbor, MI: The William Davidson Institute, 2002, 29 S.
(William Davidson Working Paper ; 483)
| Balázs Égert, Imed Drine, Kirsten Lommatzsch, Christophe Rault
1818 Ergebnisse, ab 1681