Multiplicative growth processes that are subject to random shocks often have a skewed distribution of outcomes. A simple laboratory experiment shows that participants either strongly underestimate skewness or ignore it completely. The participants' choices reveal bounds on their subjective medians of a financial asset's price that is subject to stochastic growth. The observed bias in expectations is ...
Objective. Cornell University's Research Data Management Service Group (RDMSG) surveyed NSF principal investigators (PIs) at Cornell in order to understand how well-prepared researchers are to meet the new NSF data management planning requirement, to build our own understanding of the potential impact on campus services, and to identify service gaps.. - Methods - We administered a 43-question online ...
In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the monthly growth rates of the prices and rents for flats in 26 largest German cities. Given the small time dimension, the forecasts are done in a panel-data format. In addition, we use panel models that account for spatial dependence between the growth rates of housing prices and rents. Using a quasi out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that both ...
We evaluate the informational content of ex post and ex ante predictors of periods of excess stock (market) valuation. For a cross section comprising 10 OECD economies and a time span of at most 40 years alternative binary chronologies of price bubble periods are determined. Using these chronologies as dependent processes and a set of macroeconomic and financial variables as explanatory variables, ...
Self-reported measures of health are generally treated as weak measures of respondents' objective health status. On the other hand, most surveys use self-reported health to measure health status and to determine the effects of a range of other socio-economic characteristics of the local environment on individual health. It is therefore of interest to the public health research community to verify the ...
Many commonly used treatment effects estimators rely on the unconfoundedness assumption (“selection on observables") which is fundamentally non-testable. When evaluating the effects of labor market policies, researchers need to observe variables that affect both treatment participation and labor market outcomes. Even though in many countries it is possible to access (very) informative administrative ...
Dass zwischen der Qualität der Wettbewerbspolitik und dem Produktivitätswachstum eines Landes ein Zusammenhang besteht, wird in der Wirtschaftswissenschaft seit langem diskutiert. Es ist jedoch sehr schwierig, diesen Zusammenhang genau nachzuweisen, größenmäßig zu bestimmen oder zu beziffern. Ein internationales Forscherteam unter wissenschaftlicher Leitung des DIW-Wettbewerbsexperten Tomaso Duso hat ...