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DIW Economic Bulletin 44 / 2015

The Ruble between the Hammer and the Anvil: The Impact of Oil Prices and Economic Sanctions

The Russian economy is tightly woven into the global economy, and is therefore highly dependent on the development of exchange rates. Since 2014, the ruble has fallen by more than 50 percent against the US dollar. The de¬valuation goes hand in hand with the Western sanctions that were imposed due to the political tensions between Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, the decline in oil prices may also ...

2015| Christian Dreger, Konstantin Kholodilin
Diskussionspapiere 1382 / 2014

Unconventional Monetary Policy and Money Demand

This paper investigates the usefulness of the money demand relationship in times of unconventional monetary policies by cointegration methods. In contrast to the bulk of the literature, evidence in favour of a stable long run money demand function is presented both for the US and the euro area. Results are based on standard monetary aggregates, i.e. MZM for the US and M3 in case of the euro area. The ...

2014| Christian Dreger, Jürgen Wolters
Diskussionspapiere 1288 / 2013

The PPP Hypothesis Revisited: Evidence Using a Multivariate Long-Memory Model

This paper examines the PPP hypothesis analysing the behaviour of the real exchange rates vis-à-vis the US dollar for four major currencies (namely, the Canadian dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound). An innovative approach based on fractional integration in a multivariate context is applied to annual data from 1970 to 2011. Long memory is found to characterise the Canadian dollar, ...

2013| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis A. Gil-Alana, Yuliya Lovcha
Zeitungs- und Blogbeiträge

Wieso Deutschland seinen fiskalischen Spielraum nutzen sollte

In: Makronom (13.10.2016), [Online-Artikel] | Marcel Fratzscher
DIW Economic Bulletin 7 / 2016

ECB Policies Effective in the Euro Area and Germany

The European Central Bank has engaged in a wide range of nonstandard monetary policy measures since 2007. Each new tool was accompanied by an intense public debate on its effectiveness. This study evaluates the average effect of these measures on the macro-economy. The estimates show that unexpected changes in monetary policy that lower euro-area sovereign bond yields lead to a significant rise in ...

2016| Malte Rieth, Michele Piffer, Michael Hachula
DIW Roundup 60 / 2015

Central Bank Asset Puchases I: The Theory

In the face of interest rates having hit their zero lower bound in major economies, large-scale asset purchases have become an important weapon of central banks in recent years. It is, however, not clear whether and under which circumstances such policy measures produce the desired effects. This round-up provides a selective overview of theoretical research that has been devoted to understand under ...

2015| Carolin Raab, Philipp König, Kerstin Bernoth
Diskussionspapiere 1339 / 2013

Fiscal Adjustment and Business Cycle Synchronization

Using a panel of annual data for 20 countries we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked, especially in the case of fiscal adjustments lasting 2 or 3 years. We also find: (i) little evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization ...

2013| Luca Agnello, Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Ricardo M. Sousa
295 Ergebnisse, ab 211