Many sovereign defaults have occurred worldwide over the past 200 years. An analysis of 321 sovereign debt restructurings since 1815 shows that foreign private and institutional investor losses were 43 percent on average. Notably, beginning in the 1970s, several debt exchanges have increasingly been required to resolve a default. To understand this new phenomenon better, this Weekly Report looks at ...
In den vergangenen 200 Jahren hat es weltweit viele Zahlungsausfälle von Staaten gegeben. Die Untersuchung von 321 Umschuldungsabkommen seit 1815 zeigt, dass Verluste von ausländischen privaten und institutionellen Investoren durchschnittlich 43 Prozent betrugen. Auffällig ist, dass es insbesondere seit den 1970er Jahren zunehmend mehrerer Umschuldungen bedurfte, um einen Zahlungsausfall nachhaltig ...
This paper provides causal evidence on the effect of credit crunches on political polarization. We combine data on bank-firm connections and electoral outcomes at the city-level during the 2008-2014 Spanish Financial Crisis. First, we show that firms in a relationship with weak banks experience a reduction in their loan supply and employment growth. Next, we estimate the effects of unemployment on ...
Theory suggests that corporate and sovereign bonds are fundamentally different, also because sovereign debt has no bankruptcy mechanism and is hard to enforce. We show empirically that the two assets are more similar than you think, at least when it comes to high-yield bonds over the past 20 years. Based on rich new data we compare risky US corporate bonds (“junk” bonds) to risky emerging market sovereign ...
Studie untersucht Gläubigerverluste durch 200 Zahlungsausfälle von Staaten seit 1815 - Investoren verloren bei Schuldenkrisen durchschnittlich 47 Prozent ihrer Forderungen durch Umschuldungen - Mit drei oder mehr Umschuldungen erleiden Gläubiger mit 60 Prozent sogar weitaus höhere Verluste - Schuldentragfähigkeitsanalysen könnten optimalen Schuldenschnitt bestimmen Je niedriger Schuldenschnitte bei ...
Join us for an insightful presentation on the global impact of COVID-19 on public debt and the challenges it poses for policymakers. This lecture explore the effectiveness of different approaches to reducing debt-to-GDP ratios, considering econometric analyses and historical experiences. Followed by a discussion. Key findings include: Fiscal consolidations: Timely and well-designed fiscal...
Financial repression lowers the return on government debt and contributes, all else equal, towards its liquidation. However, its full effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio hinges on how repression impacts the economy at large because it alters investment and saving decisions. We develop and estimate a New Keynesian model with financial repression. Based on U.S. data for the period 1948–1974, we find, consistent ...