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An Early Warning System to Predict the Speculative House Price Bubbles

In this paper, the authors construct country-specific chronologies of house price bubbles for 12 OECD countries over the period 1969:Q12009:Q4. These chronologies are obtained using a combination of fundamental and filter approaches. The resulting speculative bubble chronology is the one providing the highest concordance between these two techniques. In addition, the authors suggest an early warning ...

Is There a Bubble in the Chinese Housing Market?

For many analysts, the Chinese economy is being spurred on by a bubble in the housing market, probably driven by the fiscal stimulus package and massive credit expansion, with potentially adverse effects on the real economy. The house price development is investigated by panel cointegration techniques. Evidence is based on a data-set for 35 major cities. Cointegration is detected between real house ...

Survey of Photovoltaic Industry and Policy in Germany and China

Photovoltaic (PV) technologies have demonstrated significant price reductions, but large-scale global application of PV requires further technology improvements and cost reductions along the value chain. We survey policies in Germany and China and the industrial actors they can encourage to pursue innovation, including deployment support, investment support for manufacturing plants and R&D support ...

Financing the Energy Transition in Times of Financial Market Instability

One of the most pressing public priorities in Germany at present is how to organize the energy transition. However, the cost of stabilizing the financial sector as well as the fiscal pact and the debt brake mean that the government has limited financial resources. Consequently, the availability of private capital, whether in the form of equity or debt, is becoming a decisive factor in the success of ...

Spreading the Risk: Nine Questions to Claudia Kemfert and Dorothea Schäfer

In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Prediction of Stock Market Bubbles: Cross-Sectional Evidence

We evaluate the informational content of ex post and ex ante predictors of periods of excess stock (market) valuation. For a cross section comprising 10 OECD economies and a time span of at most 40 years alternative binary chronologies of price bubble periods are determined. Using these chronologies as dependent processes and a set of macroeconomic and financial variables as explanatory variables, ...

EU-Gipfelbeschlüsse: erste wichtige Schritte, aber keineswegs eine endgültige Lösung

Die Beschlüsse des EU-Gipfels vom 26. und 27. Oktober sehen wichtige Schritte zur Bewältigung der Griechenlandkrise vor. Sie erleichtern Griechenlands Schuldensituation und verschaffen dem Land so finanzielle Spielräume, um Reformen umzusetzen. Eine Ablehnung von Reformen würde zu im Moment nicht kalkulierbaren Folgen führen. Die EU-Politiker haben Pläne zur Stützung des Bankensektors vorgelegt und ...

Es muss Eingriffsrechte in den griechischen Haushalt geben: Drei Fragen an Dorothea Schäfer und Simon Junker

Is there a Bubble in the Chinese Housing Market?

Measuring Well-Being: W3 Indicators to Complement GDP

Numerous people in Germany, including politicians and researchers, believe that the gross domestic product (GDP) is an outdated indicator of a society's prosperity. Therefore, at the end of 2010, the German Bundestag, the federal parliament, established a study commission (Enquete-Kommission) tasked with developing an alternative to the GDP for measuring growth, prosperity, and quality of life. This ...