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A Noncausal Autoregressive Model with Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to U.S. Inflation

We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The model .fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence has declined in the early 1980.s and slightly increased again in the late 1990.s. Estimates of the new Keynesian Phillips curve indicate that current inflation ...

International Knowledge Spillovers through High-Tech Imports and R&D of Foreign-Owned Firms

The international transmission of knowledge through import spillovers, as a source of TFP growth, has received much attention in the literature. We investigate two additional direct channels through which R&D disseminates: the import of high-technology goods and the internationalization of business R&D. Building on an extensive dataset, covering both developing and industrial countries, we add foreign ...

Alternative Wohlstandsmessung: neun Indikatoren können das Bruttoinlandsprodukt ergänzen und relativieren

Zahlreiche Menschen, Politiker und Wissenschaftler in Deutschland glauben, dass das "Bruttoinlandsprodukt", kurz BIP, als Maßzahl für gesellschaftlichen Wohlstand überholt sei. Deshalb hat der Deutsche Bundestag Ende 2010 eine Studien-Kommission ("Enquete- Kommission") eingerichtet, die den Auftrag hat, mit Blick auf die Messung von Wachstum, Wohlstand und Lebensqualität eine Alternative zum BIP zu ...

Demokratie und Freiheit sind im Urteil der Bürger wichtiger als Wirtschaftswachstum: Sieben Fragen an Marco Giesselmann

In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Prediction of Stock Market Bubbles: Cross-Sectional Evidence

We evaluate the informational content of ex post and ex ante predictors of periods of excess stock (market) valuation. For a cross-section comprising 10 OECD economies and a time span of at most 40 years, alternative binary chronologies of price bubble periods are determined. Using these chronologies as dependent processes and a set of macroeconomic and financial variables as explanatory variables, ...

An Early Warning System to Predict Speculative House Price Bubbles

In this paper, the authors construct country-specific chronologies of the house price bubbles for 12 OECD countries over the period 1969:Q1-2009:Q4. These chronologies are obtained using a combination of a fundamental approach and a filter approach. The resulting speculative bubble chronology is the one which provides the highest concordance between these two techniques. In addition, the authors suggest ...

Spekulative Preisentwicklung an den Immobilienmärkten: Elemente eines Frühwarnsystems

Von spekulativen Übertreibungen an den Vermögensmärkten können erhebliche makroökonomische Verluste für Produktion und Beschäftigung ausgehen. Solche Entwicklungen sollten möglichst frühzeitig und verlässlich erkannt werden, um eine Gegensteuerung durch entsprechende wirtschaftspolitische Maßnahmen zu ermöglichen. Diesem Ziel dient das Frühwarnsystem, welches das DIW Berlin im Auftrag des Bundesfinanzministeriums ...

Neues Frühwarnsystem kann Immobilienpreisblasen vorhersagen: Sechs Fragen an Konstantin Kholodilin

Business Cycles, International Trade and Capital Flows: Evidence from Latin America

This paper adopts a flexible framework to assess both short- and long-run business cycle linkages between six Latin American (LA) countries and the four largest economies in the world (namely the US, the Euro area, Japan and China) over the period 1980:I-2011:IV. The result indicate that within the LA region there are considerable differences between countries, success stories coexisting with extremely ...

Is There a Bubble in the Chinese Housing Market?

For many analysts, the Chinese economy is being spurred on by a bubble in the housing market, probably driven by the fiscal stimulus package and massive credit expansion, with potentially adverse effects on the real economy. The house price development is investigated by panel cointegration techniques. Evidence is based on a data-set for 35 major cities. Cointegration is detected between real house ...