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1351 Ergebnisse, ab 1201
  • Diskussionspapiere 1304 / 2013

    On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing

    The paper analyses the global spillovers of the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policy measures. First, we find that Fed measures in the early phase of the crisis (QE1), but not since 2010 (QE2), were highly effective in lowering sovereign yields and raising equity markets in the US and globally across 65 countries. Yet Fed policies functioned in a procyclical manner for capital flows to ...

    2013| Marcel Fratzscher, Marco Lo Duca, Roland Straub
  • Diskussionspapiere 1286 / 2013

    Noncausality and Inflation Persistence

    We use noncausal autoregressions to examine the persistence properties of quarterly U.S. consumer price inflation from 1970:1.2012:2. These nonlinear models capture the autocorrelation structure of the inflation series as accurately as their conventional causal counterparts, but they allow for persistence to depend on the size and sign of shocks to inflation as well as the inflation rate. Inflation ...

    2013| Markku Lanne
  • Diskussionspapiere 1285 / 2013

    A Noncausal Autoregressive Model with Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to U.S. Inflation

    We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The model .fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence has declined in the early 1980.s and slightly increased again in the late 1990.s. Estimates of the new Keynesian Phillips curve indicate that current inflation ...

    2013| Markku Lanne, Jani Luoto
  • Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science

    The Global Dimension of Inflation: Evidence from Factor-Augmented Phillips Curve

    We examine the global dimension of inflation in 24 OECD countries between 1980 and 2007 in a Phillips curve framework. We decompose output gaps and changes in unit labour costs into common (or global) and idiosyncratic components using a factor analysis and introduce these components separately in the regression. We find that the common component of changes in unit labour costs has a notable impact ...

    In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 75 (2013), 1, S. 103-122 | Sandra Eickmeier, Katharina Pijnenburg
  • Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science

    Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area: Does Catching up Explain the Development?

    In the debate on global imbalances, the euro area countries received inreasing attention since the outbreak of the financial crisis. While the current account is on balance for the entire area, divergences between individual member states have increased since the introduction of the common currency and are part of the excessive imbalances procedure. This paper explores the determinants of the imbalances ...

    In: Review of International Economics 21 (2013), 1, S. 6-17 | Ansgar Belke, Christian Dreger
  • Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science

    Money Demand and the Role of Monetary Indicators in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation

    This paper examines the stability of money demand and the forecasting performances of a broad monetary aggregate (M3), excess liquidity and excess inflation in predicting euro area inflation. The out-of sample forecasting performances are compared to a widely used alternative, the spread of interest rates. The results indicate that the evolution of M3 is still in line with money demand, even when observations ...

    In: International Journal of Forecasting 30 (2014), 2, S. 303-312 | Christian Dreger, Jürgen Wolters
  • DIW Wochenbericht 12 / 2014

    Schwache Preisentwicklung und Deflationsgefahr im Euroraum: Grenzen der konventionellen Geldpolitik

    Die Inflationsrate im Euroraum liegt seit knapp einem Jahr unterhalb der von der Europäischen Zentralbank angestrebten Zielmarke und wird voraussichtlich auch in der kommenden Zeit auf einem sehr niedrigen Niveau verharren. Zum einen steht eine solch geringe Inflation nicht im Einklang mit der Zielsetzung der EZB, zum anderen besteht in dieser Situation die Gefahr, in eine Deflation abzurutschen. Angesichts ...

    2014| Kerstin Bernoth, Marcel Fratzscher, Philipp König
  • DIW Wochenbericht 12 / 2014

    Gefahr einer Deflation ist durchaus real: Sieben Fragen an Kerstin Bernoth und Philipp König

    2014
  • DIW Wochenbericht 11 / 2014

    Bitcoin: ein Zahlungsmittel mit Risiken und Nebenwirkungen: Kommentar

    2014| Georg Erber
  • DIW Wochenbericht 50 / 2013

    Zinskartelle, Währungskartelle... und was kommt noch? Kommentar

    2013| Dorothea Schäfer
1351 Ergebnisse, ab 1201
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