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Unit Labor Cost Growth Differentials in the Euro Area, Germany, and the US: Lessons from PANIC and Cluster Analysis

Inflation differentials in the Euro area are mainly due to a sustained divergence of wage developments across the Euro area, and narrower differences in labour productivity growth (Alvarez et al., 2006). We investigate convergence of inflation using unit labour cost (ULC) growth and applying PANIC (Bai and Ng, 2004) and cluster procedures (Hobijn and Franses, 2000, Busetti et al., 2006) to Euro area ...

Declining Output Volatility in Germany: Impulses, Propagation, and the Role of Monetary Policy

This paper investigates the effect of economic integration on the ability of firms to maintain a collusive understanding about staying out of each other's markets. The paper distinguishes among different types of trade costs: ad valorem, unit, fixed. It is shown that for a sufficient reduction of ad valorem trade costs, a cartel supported by collusion on either quantities or prices will be weakened, ...

Assessing Leading Indicators for the EMU Area from a Practitioner's Perspective

In this paper, the empirical relevance of the credit channel for the explanation of monetary policy transmission in Germany during the period from 1985 to 1998 is analyzed. While existing studies of the credit channel rely mostly on the analysis of monetary policy effects on balance sheet items, both quantities and financing costs are considered here. Using vector autoregressive models, impulse response ...

Der verlorene Aufschwung

European Inflation Expectations Dynamics

The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations

We investigate the relevance of the Carroll's sticky information model of inflation expectations for four major European economies (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom). Using survey data on household and expert inflation expectations we argue that the model adequately captures the dynamics of household inflation expectations. We estimate two alternative parametrizations of the sticky information ...

Sticky Information Phillips Curves: European Evidence

We estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and the United Kingdom are updated about once a year, in Italy about once each six months.

Mißverständnisse und Irrtümer: zum Thema Geld- und Kreditreform

In den letzten Tagen befaßte sich die öffentliche Diskussion mit einem Plan zur Geld- und Kreditreform, den ich, unterstützt und beraten von einem Kreis hervorragender Sachkenner, ausgearbeitet und der Öffentlichkeit als private wissenschaftliche Arbeit unterbreitet habe. Dabei sind in der Presse manche Mißverständnisse entstanden, die es mir zur Pflicht machen, den Lesern der "Wochenberichte des Instituts ...

Effektenkurse und Geldmarkt

Die Preisbewegung

Obwohl sich in den letzten beiden Monaten die Spannungen auf der Kreditseite der Wirtschaft verschärft haben und auch die Beschäftigung der Industrie weiter im Absinken begriffen ist, hat das deutsche Preisniveau seinen konjunkturellen Rückgang bis jetzt nur zögernd fortgesetzt. Für die Zukunft bedeutet freilich die Verschärfung der Kreditspannungen die Gefahr eines verstärkten Zwangs zur Liquidation ...