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In Germany, Equal Opportunities Are Almost as Bad as in the US and Much Worse Than in Denmark: Nine Questions to Daniel Schnitzlein

Measuring Well-Being: W3 Indicators to Complement GDP

Plenty of people in Germany, including politicians and researchers, believe that gross domestic product (GDP) is an outdated indicator of a society's prosperity. Therefore, at the end of 2010, the German Bundestag, the federal parliament, established a study commission (Enquete Kommission) tasked with developing an alternative to GDP for measuring growth, wealth, and quality of life. This commission ...

In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Prediction of Stock Market Bubbles: Cross-Sectional Evidence

We evaluate the informational content of ex post and ex ante predictors of periods of excess stock (market) valuation. For a cross-section comprising 10 OECD economies and a time span of at most 40 years, alternative binary chronologies of price bubble periods are determined. Using these chronologies as dependent processes and a set of macroeconomic and financial variables as explanatory variables, ...

A Market Screening Model for Price Inconstancies: Empirical Evidence from German Electricity Markets

In this paper, we develop a market screening model to detect inconstancies in price changes. Although there is a long history of industrial organization research of collusion, price setting behavior, and conduct - a robust model to detect structural changes in market structure was missing so far. Our non-parametric approach closes this gap and can be used as a tentative warning system for emerging ...

Alternative Wohlstandsmessung: neun Indikatoren können das Bruttoinlandsprodukt ergänzen und relativieren

Zahlreiche Menschen, Politiker und Wissenschaftler in Deutschland glauben, dass das "Bruttoinlandsprodukt", kurz BIP, als Maßzahl für gesellschaftlichen Wohlstand überholt sei. Deshalb hat der Deutsche Bundestag Ende 2010 eine Studien-Kommission ("Enquete- Kommission") eingerichtet, die den Auftrag hat, mit Blick auf die Messung von Wachstum, Wohlstand und Lebensqualität eine Alternative zum BIP zu ...

Demokratie und Freiheit sind im Urteil der Bürger wichtiger als Wirtschaftswachstum: Sieben Fragen an Marco Giesselmann

Noncausality and Inflation Persistence

We use noncausal autoregressions to examine the persistence properties of quarterly U.S. consumer price inflation from 1970:1.2012:2. These nonlinear models capture the autocorrelation structure of the inflation series as accurately as their conventional causal counterparts, but they allow for persistence to depend on the size and sign of shocks to inflation as well as the inflation rate. Inflation ...

A Noncausal Autoregressive Model with Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to U.S. Inflation

We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The model .fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence has declined in the early 1980.s and slightly increased again in the late 1990.s. Estimates of the new Keynesian Phillips curve indicate that current inflation ...

In Deutschland ist die Chancengleichheit ähnlich niedrig wie in den USA und deutlich geringer als in Dänemark: Neun Fragen an Daniel Schnitzlein

The Dynamics of Repaet Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis

This article studies repeat or circular migration between the host and home countries using panel data for Germany, distinguishing between factors generating single moves, circular migration, and absorption. Migrants are more likely to leave early after their first arrival in Germany, and when they have social and familial bonds in the home country, but less likely when they have a job in Germany and ...