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Measuring Individual Risk Attitudes in the Lab: Task or Ask? An Empirical Comparison

This paper compares two prominent empirical measures of individual risk attitudes - the Holt and Laury (2002) lottery-choice task and the multi-item questionnaire advocated by Dohmen, Falk, Huffman, Schupp, Sunde and Wagner (forthcoming) - with respect to (a) their within-subject stability over time (one year) and (b) their correlation with actual risk-taking behaviour in the lab - here the amount ...

How Helpful Are Spatial Effects in Forecasting the Growth of Chinese Provinces?

In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the annual growth rates of the real gross regional product (GRP) for each of the 31 Chinese provinces simultaneously. Beside the usual panel data models, we use panel models that explicitly account for spatial dependence between the GRP growth rates. In addition, the possibility of spatial effects being different for different groups of provinces (Interior ...

Empiricism Meets Theory: Is the Boone-Indicator Applicable?

Boone (2008a) proposes a new competition measure based on Relative Profit Differences (RPD) with superior theoretical properties. However, the empirical applicability and robust-ness of the Boone-Indicator is still unknown. This paper aims to address that question. Using a rich, newly built, data set for German manufacturing enterprises, we test the empirical valid-ity of the Boone-Indicator using ...

Liquidity Risk, Credit Risk and the Overnight Interest Rate Spread: A Stochastic Volatility Modelling Approach

In this paper we model the volatility of the spread between the overnight interest rate and the central bank policy rate (the policy spread) for the euro area and the UK during the two main phases of the financial crisis that began in late 2007. During the crisis, the policy spread exhibited signs of volatility, owing to the breakdown in interbank market activity. The determinants of this volatility ...

Google Searches as a Means of Improving the Nowcasts of Key Macroeconomic Variables

The Google Insights data are a collection of recorded Internet searches for a huge number of the keywords, which are available since January 2004. These searches represent a kind of revealed perceptions of Internet users, which are a (possibly not entirely representative) sample of the general public. These data can be used to improve the short-term forecasts or nowcasts of various macroeconomic variables. ...

Support Vector Machines: eine neue Methode zum Rating von Unternehmen

Die Rekordzahlen an Unternehmensinsolvenzen, die schlechte Ertragslage der deutschen Kreditinstitute in den vergangenen Jahren und der von Basel II ausgehende Druck zur Verwendung von realitätsnahen Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeiten haben es überdeutlich gemacht: Der Bedarf an leistungsfähigen Insolvenzprognosemodellen ist immens. Mehr denn je suchen Banken, aber auch andere Finanzdienstleister wie Venture-Capital-Firmen ...

Does Accounting for Spatial Effects Help Forecasting the Growth of Chinese Provinces?

In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the annual growth rates of the real GRP for each of the 31 Chinese provinces simultaneously. Beside the usual panel data models, we use panel models that explicitly account for spatial dependence between the GRP growth rates. In addition, the possibility of spatial effects being different for different groups of provinces (Interior and Coast) is allowed. ...

Testing for Convergence in Stock Markets: A Non-linear Factor Approach

This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US over the period 1973-2008. We carry out the analysis on both sectors and individual industries within sectors. As a first step, we use the Stock and ...

Which Progress for Poverty Studies Can We Expect from New Large Data Sources?

To Claim or Not to Claim: Estimating Non-take-up of Social Assistance in Germany and the Role of Measurement Error

Using representative micro data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) for the year 2002, we analyse non-take-up behaviour of Social Assistance (SA) inGermany. According to our simulation as much as 67 percent of the eligible population did not claim SA in that year which is slightly higher than reported in previous work. We particularly emphasize the role of measurement error in estimating ...