The surge in the German house prices starting in 2010 raised fears about the emergence of a speculative bubble. Given a local nature of housing markets, it is not clear to what extent the bubble, if any, is spread across different cities. In this paper, we test for speculative house price bubbles in 127 large German cities over the last 20 years. Along with testing bubbles for each city separately, ...
Using representative micro data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) for the year 2002, we analyse non-take-up behaviour of Social Assistance (SA) inGermany. According to our simulation as much as 67 percent of the eligible population did not claim SA in that year which is slightly higher than reported in previous work. We particularly emphasize the role of measurement error in estimating ...
We estimate the Sticky Information Phillips Curve model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom are updated about once a year, while in Italy, about once each 6 months.
Zur Ermittlung kurzfristiger Konjunkturprognosen wird häufig auf die Faktorenmodelle, die auf der Hauptkomponentenanalyse beruhen, zurückgegriffen. In diesem Beitrag wird diese Methodik zur Vorhersage der Produktion im verarbeitenden Gewerbe angewandt, insbesondere im Hinblick auf Automobil-, Metallherstellung, Maschinenbau und Produktion chemischer Erzeugnisse. Die Ergebnisse werden mit denen der ...
Das SOEP baut seit dem Jahr 2003 das Erhebungsinstrumentarium für den Bereich der frühen Kindheit systematisch aus. Dieser Beitrag berichtet über die instrumentelle Güte eines 20 Items umfassenden Mütterfragebogens zum adaptiven Verhalten von zwei bis dreijährigen Kindern (VABS) in den Bereichen Sprache, Alltagsfertigkeiten, Motorik und soziale Beziehungen, der erstmals im Jahr 2005 eingesetzt wurde. ...
The present paper studies the growth, welfare and efficiency consequences of the recent introduction of tax-favored retirement accounts in Germany in a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic lifespan and labor income uncertainty. We focus on the implicit differential taxation of specific savings motives, the mandatory annuitization of benefits and the impact of special ...
We discuss a new approach to specifying and estimating ordered probit models with endogenous switching, or with binary endogenous regressor, based on copula functions. These models provide a framework of analysis for self-selection in economic well-being equations, where assigment of regressors may be choice based, resulting from well-being maximization, rather than random. In an application to public ...